Russia vs. Ukraine War Odds & Ceasefire Markets
Live prediction market odds on the Russia-Ukraine war: ceasefire and peace-deal timing, territorial concessions, NATO and security guarantees, and leadership. Prices are aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi and updated twice daily. The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire markets are among the highest-volume geopolitical contracts on these platforms. This page is part of our broader war and conflict odds coverage.
Where the Russia-Ukraine War Stands Now
Updated as of mid-2026. We refresh this section as the situation develops.
The war is in its fifth year, and 2026 has been dominated by the most serious peace push since the invasion began. Russia controls roughly one-fifth of Ukrainian territory. After U.S.-brokered talks, a 28-point framework was negotiated down to a 20-point plan, and following talks between President Zelenskyy and President Trump in Miami in December 2025, Zelenskyy said about 90 percent of a potential deal had been agreed. The remaining 10 percent contains the hardest questions: territorial concessions in the Donbas, security guarantees for postwar Ukraine, and the fate of the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.
Those sticking points have not moved much. Russia continues to demand that Ukraine withdraw entirely from Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, including the fortified "fortress belt" cities Kyiv has held since 2014, and Putin has said he will take the Donbas militarily if Ukraine does not cede it. Kyiv refuses to withdraw from territory it still controls and insists on Western security guarantees, which Russia rejects and warns it would treat foreign troops as legitimate targets. The U.S. has pressed both sides toward a deadline, with Washington signaling it wanted a settlement by early summer. On the ground, Russia keeps pressing in Donetsk and striking energy infrastructure, while short truces around dates like Russia's May Victory Day have come and gone without becoming a general ceasefire. The markets below price whether any of this produces a durable deal.
How the Russia-Ukraine War Started: A Short History
The conflict began in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and backed separatist forces in the Donbas after Ukraine's pro-Western revolution. Years of low-intensity war followed. On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion aimed at toppling the government in Kyiv. The assault on the capital failed, and the war settled into a grinding contest of attrition across a long eastern and southern front, marked by Russia's seizure of cities like Avdiivka, Ukraine's incursion into Kursk, and waves of drone and missile strikes on infrastructure.
By 2026 the front had largely stabilized, with Russia holding about a fifth of Ukraine and pressing slowly in Donetsk. The change this year has been diplomatic rather than territorial. A U.S.-led effort produced a draft framework, narrowed through talks in Abu Dhabi and Miami, that Zelenskyy described as roughly 90 percent agreed. But the hardest issues, ceding the Donbas and guaranteeing Ukraine's postwar security, remain unresolved, and Russia has shown little willingness to compromise on its maximalist demands. The prediction markets below price exactly that gap between a deal that is almost done and a deal that keeps not closing.
Will There Be a Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire by a Given Date?
This is the headline cluster. Contracts ask whether Russia and Ukraine reach an official ceasefire by various dates, from short windows to the end of 2026. The fine print is critical: these markets resolve "yes" only on a general, mutually agreed halt in fighting. Partial pauses limited to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or humanitarian corridors explicitly do not count, and informal or one-sided truces do not either. That is why several short truces that made headlines, including the three-day pause around Russia's May Victory Day, did not resolve these markets. Traders have priced a full ceasefire by year-end well below even money, reflecting skepticism that any near-term deal is comprehensive enough to qualify.
Will Ukraine and Russia Sign a Peace Deal?
A higher bar than a ceasefire, these markets ask whether the two sides sign a formal peace deal, often phrased as "before 2027." They trade on the diplomatic track: the 20-point framework, the Miami talks, the U.S. push for a summer deadline. Because Zelenskyy has said the deal is roughly 90 percent done while the last 10 percent contains the intractable territorial and security questions, these markets capture the gap between diplomatic momentum and the specific concessions neither side will make. A related contract asks whether a Ukrainian peace referendum passes before 2027, reflecting that any deal involving territorial concessions may require a public vote in Ukraine.
Territory: Will Ukraine Cede Land to Russia?
The core obstacle to any deal is territory, and a set of markets prices it directly. Contracts ask whether Ukraine agrees to cede territory to Russia before 2027. Russia's demand is that Ukraine withdraw from the parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia it still holds, including the fortified cities of the Donbas "fortress belt." Kyiv has repeatedly ruled this out. These markets are a clean read on whether traders believe Ukraine will ultimately accept the central Russian condition, and they sit low because that concession is the hardest one for any Ukrainian government to survive politically.
NATO, Security Guarantees, and the Shape of a Settlement
The other half of the deadlock is security. Markets ask whether Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027, and whether the U.S. agrees to give Ukraine a security guarantee by a given date. Russia wants a neutral Ukraine and rejects Western guarantees, warning it would treat any foreign troops as targets. Ukraine and its European partners argue that without real guarantees, any ceasefire just buys Russia time to regroup. These markets, together with the territory ones, are the clearest window into which side traders think will bend on the issues that have stalled every round of talks.
Leadership: Putin, Zelenskyy, and Regime Stability
A separate set of markets prices leadership. Contracts have asked whether Putin remains president of Russia through a given date, and whether Zelenskyy stays in office, the latter complicated by Ukraine's wartime suspension of elections and by domestic political pressures including corruption investigations. These trade as stability markets rather than election markets, since neither leader faces a normal vote during the war. They tend to sit at confident levels, but they are worth watching because a leadership change on either side would reshape the entire negotiation overnight.
How Accurate Are the Russia-Ukraine Odds?
The ceasefire and peace markets have been a useful corrective to wishful headlines. Through 2026, while officials repeatedly described a deal as close, the markets kept the probability of a year-end ceasefire well below even money, correctly capturing that the territorial and security gaps were not closing. Large studies of Polymarket find prices are generally well-calibrated across thousands of markets. The caveats apply here too: a market priced at 30 percent that resolves "yes" was not wrong, it was telling you the outcome was a real minority possibility, and thinner contracts can be moved by a single trader. The high-volume ceasefire markets are a strong signal. The narrow leadership and referendum markets are softer ones.
More War and Conflict Odds
Russia-Ukraine is one of several conflicts we track. For the full picture, see our main war and conflict odds page, which carries a quick-view strip and dedicated sections for every active conflict. We also maintain a deep-dive page on Iran war odds and prediction markets, the other conflict trading at this scale, covering the nuclear program, regime stability, and the Strait of Hormuz. For domestic political markets, see our coverage of 2026 Senate odds and the 2028 presidential race.
How We Source These Russia-Ukraine Odds
We pull live data twice daily from the public APIs of Polymarket and Kalshi. For each market we show the implied probability, the midpoint of the live price, expressed as a percentage. We never modify the underlying numbers. When a market resolves or its deadline passes, it drops off this page automatically, and new markets appear as they list. The history and current-status sections above are maintained by hand and dated. The odds are not. They update on their own.
We do not operate Polymarket or Kalshi and we do not take bets. We aggregate their public data and present it in one place, for free. Conflict markets, especially low-volume ones, can be moved by a single trader and are not forecasts. Wagering on war is ethically fraught. Betting figures and conflict facts are cited as of the dates noted and will change over time.