- South Carolina holds its primary on Tuesday, June 9. Runoffs, if needed, will be held June 23. The governor’s race is the most unpredictable top-of-ticket contest in the state.
- Kalshi gives Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette a 64% chance of winning the Republican governor primary after Trump’s endorsement. Polymarket has her higher at 68.5%. But the latest polls show five candidates bunched within 12 points of each other.
- Sen. Lindsey Graham sits at 96% on Kalshi to win Tuesday’s Republican Senate primary. The general election is priced at 85% Republican on Kalshi, with Democrats at 15%.
- South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District is the one House race drawing national attention. Mace is leaving to run for governor, creating an open seat that Democrats have targeted.
- All of South Carolina’s election odds favor Republicans in November. But with a chaotic governor’s primary and an open House seat in play, Tuesday’s vote is worth watching closely.
COLUMBIA, S.C. — South Carolina holds its primary on Tuesday, June 9. Polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern. If no candidate clears 50%, runoffs will be held on June 23.
The Palmetto State has one of the most crowded and interesting GOP primary fields in the country this cycle — a wide-open governor’s race, a Senate incumbent facing five challengers, and a competitive open House seat.
Here is where the election odds in South Carolina stand heading into Tuesday’s vote.
Governor: Evette Is the Market Favorite, but This Race Is Far From Over
Gov. Henry McMaster is term-limited and cannot run again. His departure opened what has become one of the most competitive Republican governor’s primaries in South Carolina in decades.
Kalshi gives Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette a 64% chance of winning the Republican nomination on Tuesday. Polymarket is more aggressive at 68.5%. The surge follows Trump’s late May endorsement of Evette, which moved her from a five-way statistical tie to the clear market leader.
But the polls tell a more complicated story than the gubernatorial odds. A Trafalgar Group tracking poll from May 29-31 had Evette at 26.3%, businessman Rom Reddy at 17.2%, Attorney General Alan Wilson at 16.9%, Rep. Ralph Norman at 16.1%, and Rep. Nancy Mace at 14.8%.
A separate June 1 survey showed the race even tighter, with Evette at 17%, Wilson at 16%, Mace at 16%, and 23% of voters still undecided. With the field this crowded and the undecided share this large, a runoff on June 23 is a real possibility.
Whoever wins the Republican primary in November will be the heavy favorite. Democrats have not won a South Carolina governor’s race since 1998. The general election is not where this story gets interesting — Tuesday is.
The GOP Governor Field
Pamela Evette, 56, has served as lieutenant governor since 2019. Before entering politics, she founded Quality Business Solutions, a payroll and HR services company. McMaster endorsed her, and Trump followed in May, cementing her frontrunner status on prediction markets.
Alan Wilson has been South Carolina’s attorney general since 2011. He entered the race positioning himself as a steady, credentialed conservative, but Trump’s endorsement of Evette made his path harder. He polls consistently in second or third place.
Nancy Mace, the Lowcountry congresswoman, and Ralph Norman, who gave up his seat to run, both represent the congressional wing of the party. Mace has campaigned aggressively but has struggled to convert name recognition into polling momentum since Trump passed on her.
Rom Reddy is a wealthy businessman and political newcomer who has largely self-funded his campaign. He has polled in the mid-teens and represents the wild card in a race where any of the top five could realistically finish second and force a runoff.
Senate: Graham Is Safe in the Primary, Leads in November Too
Sen. Lindsey Graham is seeking a fifth term in the Senate after first winning the seat in 2002. He faces five Republican challengers, but Kalshi prices him at 96% to win the primary — and the senate odds have not moved much all cycle.
The most notable challenger is Paul Dans, a former Trump administration official who served as the director of the Office of Presidential Personnel and was a chief architect of Project 2025. Dans has raised real money but has not moved primary polls significantly against Graham.
For the general election, Kalshi gives Republicans an 85% chance of holding the seat. Polymarket is at 81%. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican. Sabato’s Crystal Ball classifies it as Safe Republican. Graham won his last race in 2020 by about 10 points over Democrat Jaime Harrison.
House: SC-1 Is the Open Seat Worth Watching
The most interesting House race in South Carolina is SC-1. Rep. Nancy Mace left her Lowcountry seat to run for governor, creating an open seat that runs along the coast from the Hilton Head area to the North Carolina border. Republicans carry a R+6 partisan lean in the district.
Democrats have received DCCC targeting and are fielding multiple primary candidates on Tuesday. But the House of Representatives odds at Polymarket and Kalshi both treat the district as a likely Republican hold. No polling has shown a structural shift away from the district’s historical partisan lean.
Elsewhere in the South Carolina delegation, Rep. Russell Fry is running for reelection in SC-7 (Myrtle Beach to Florence). He won 65-35 in 2024. Rep. Joe Wilson holds SC-2. Rep. William Timmons holds SC-4. All are expected to advance without difficulty. Rep. Jim Clyburn holds SC-6 on the Democratic side.
The Bottom Line
South Carolina is a deeply red state where November outcomes are not in serious doubt for either the Senate or the governorship. But Tuesday’s Republican governor’s primary is one of the most competitive top-of-ticket contests in the country today.
Kalshi and Polymarket both put Evette as the clear frontrunner after Trump’s endorsement. The polls are much less certain. With a 23% undecided share and five candidates within range of second place, a June 23 runoff is entirely possible.
For anyone watching election odds across the 2026 map, South Carolina’s Tuesday primary is a reminder that even in safe Republican states, the primary can be a story all its own.
South Carolina’s primary is Tuesday, June 9, 2026. Runoffs, if needed, are June 23. The general election is November 3, 2026.
