- Kalshi had John E. Sununu at 97.6 cents against Scott Brown at 2.9 on the Republican Senate board, and Polymarket priced him at 96.7.
- Chris Pappas trades at 95 percent or better for the Democratic Senate nod against progressive Karishma Manzur.
- NH-01 is the only board still moving. Kalshi now shows Maura Sullivan near 63 percent with Stefany Shaheen at 29, after Shaheen sat above 80 in July.
- Kalshi puts Democrats near 89 percent to win the open Senate seat in November, while the RealClearPolitics average has Pappas ahead by just 2 points.
- Kelly Ayotte is at 99 percent for the Republican governor nomination, and the November board has Republicans at 83 percent.
CONCORD, NH - New Hampshire votes on Tuesday, September 8, and the ballot has one genuine question on it. Jeanne Shaheen is retiring, so the Senate seat is open for the first time since 2010. Chris Pappas is leaving NH-01 to chase it, so that seat is open too. The Senate primaries are settled and the governor race is a formality. The First District is not. Here is where the New Hampshire election odds sit five days out.
U.S. Senate: Settled Primaries, A Mispriced General
Sununu was quoted at 97.6 cents on Kalshi in late August, with Brown at 2.9. Polymarket had the same race at 96.7 and 2.95. Both books are small, roughly $12,700 traded on the Sununu side, so the prices reflect consensus rather than money. He has led every public poll since January by 20 to 46 points and carries a Trump endorsement.
Sununu also skipped the final WMUR debate on August 31, and the number did not move. That tells you what the market thinks of Brown, who represented Massachusetts in the Senate and has been running against a Sununu name in a state with two former governors by that name.
Pappas is priced above 95 percent against Manzur, a biochemist and peace activist running from the left. One recent poll showed Manzur gaining, which is worth watching but not worth 5 cents.
The general is the real disagreement. Kalshi has the Democratic side near 89 percent and Polymarket has it near 86. The polling says something else. RealClearPolitics rates the race a toss-up with Pappas up 2.0 points on average, and Saint Anselm found him leading both Republicans while running closer against Sununu than against Brown. A 20 point gap between the market and the polling average is rare this late. For anyone shopping Senate odds, that gap is the whole trade.
U.S. House: The One Live Board In New England
NH-01 is why bettors should care about Tuesday. Nine Democrats filed for an open seat that voted for Harris by 2 points, and the board has turned over completely in six weeks.
Shaheen, a former Portsmouth city councilor and the retiring senator's daughter, was above 80 percent in July. Then Saint Anselm polled the race August 17 and 18 and found Sullivan ahead 26 to 24, with Carleigh Beriont at 12. A UNH survey taken August 20 to 24 had Sullivan up 24 to 19. Kalshi and Polymarket both cut Shaheen into the mid 50s within days, and the most recent Kalshi listing has Sullivan at 63 percent to Shaheen's 29. Polymarket has lagged the move and still showed Shaheen ahead in mid August.
The money favors Sullivan too. She is a Marine veteran, a former Obama administration official, and she ran for this seat in 2018. Her campaign has raised $3.33 million to Shaheen's $2.21 million, with Beriont at $506,000. Shaheen still holds the better polling average across the full cycle at 25.1 percent to 13.7, because the early surveys were lopsided in her favor.
On the Republican side, Anthony DiLorenzo is priced at 90 percent or better over Hollie Noveletsky. The November board has Democrats near 89 percent to hold the seat. For a market this thin, in a race where two polls flipped the favorite, the House odds here can move several points in a day. Refresh before you bet.
Governor: Two Year Terms, One Priced Outcome
Ayotte is at 99 percent for the Republican nomination against Shaun Fife and Bob McClory. Cinde Warmington is at 98 percent and is the only Democrat on the ballot. New Hampshire governors serve two year terms, so Ayotte is defending after less than two years in office.
November is thin too. The board has Republicans at 83 percent, Saint Anselm has Ayotte up 11 at 49 to 38, and Republicans have won every governor race here since 2016. Ayotte took the 2024 race by 9.34 points, the closest governor contest in the country that cycle. These governor odds are chalk with a swing state footnote.
The Bettor's Read
The Senate primaries are storage fees. Sununu at 97.6 cents pays 2.5 cents on the dollar, and Pappas above 95 pays less than a nickel. Brown at 2.9 is the only cheap ticket, and a candidate who has trailed by 20 to 46 points in every poll since January is not a 3 percent shot for no reason.
NH-01 is the bet on the board. Sullivan at 63 and Shaheen at 29 is a real price with real uncertainty, and the two most recent polls disagree with the full cycle average. If you think late deciders in a nine candidate field follow name recognition, Shaheen at 29 is the value side. If you think the August polls caught a genuine shift and the fundraising edge finishes it, buy the new favorite before Tuesday. The books are small enough that either view can get filled.
The general elections are where the argument gets interesting. Democrats near 89 percent for a Senate seat that RealClearPolitics calls a toss-up is the widest market-versus-polls gap on any board this cycle, and one of those two is wrong. For the rest of the November map, work the wider election odds board.
