- BetOnline priced Talarico at -130 to Paxton’s even money, up from -115 apiece over the previous weeks.
- Emerson College’s Sept. 17 survey of likely voters put Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 46%.
- Talarico holds 54% of Hispanic voters to Paxton’s 39%, a group Trump carried in 2024.
- No active pollster still shows Paxton ahead, a first for the race according to a Newsweek review.
AUSTIN, Texas – BetOnline moved James Talarico, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Texas, to -130 over Ken Paxton, the Republican, who now pays even odds, on the same day a new Emerson College survey gave Talarico a one-point edge.
The Line Moves
BetOnline had priced the race as a pick ’em for weeks, Talarico and Paxton both at -115. The book has since moved off that split, one of several races tracked on the site’s election odds board:
| Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| James Talarico (D) | -130 |
| Ken Paxton (R) | Even |
A Talarico bet now costs $130 to win $100, up from the $115 the book had asked for weeks. Bovada has him at -135, with Paxton at +105.
The Poll Behind It
A survey from Emerson College Polling and Nexstar Media, released Sept. 17, sampled 1,000 likely Texas voters Sept. 12-14 with a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 points. Talarico drew 47% and Paxton 46%. Ted Brown, the Libertarian, took 2%, and 4% had not decided. Emerson’s August survey ran the other way, Paxton 47% and Talarico 46%, so each man moved a single point.
Paxton’s own numbers explain part of the drift. His favorability sits underwater in the same poll, 40% positive to 48% negative, while Talarico is above water, 48% to 42%.
Where The Shift Is Coming From
The clearest driver in Emerson’s crosstabs is the Hispanic vote. Trump carried that group in Texas in 2024; in this survey Talarico holds 54% of it to Paxton’s 39%, a 15-point gap.
A Trend, Not A One-Poll Blip
A Newsweek review of active polling found no active pollster still showing Paxton ahead, a first for the race. The list covers the University of Texas, Texas Public Opinion Research, YouGov/Univision, AARP, Overton Insights and Telemundo/Mason-Dixon. No Democrat has won a statewide race in Texas since 1994, a drought tracked alongside the rest of the ballot on the 2026 Texas election odds page.
Paxton, the sitting Texas attorney general, beat Sen. John Cornyn in the May 26 Republican primary runoff, detailed in the Texas 2026 runoff results recap. Texas voters decide the race Nov. 3.
