- Troy Jackson’s Maine contract rose seven cents to 64 on Kalshi since Oct. 15, the biggest move among six Senate races.
- Republican Sen. Susan Collins fell eight cents to 36, with six of those cents coming on Oct. 19 and 20.
- Polymarket moved Jackson to 64.5 cents from 59.5, narrowing its gap with Kalshi from 2.5 cents to half a cent.
- Nebraska’s Pete Ricketts is the only other candidate to move more than two cents, slipping to 72 from 75.
AUGUSTA, Maine – Maine Senate odds swung toward Democrat Troy Jackson, whose Kalshi price rose seven cents to 64 since the Oct. 15 close, while Republican Sen. Susan Collins fell eight cents to 36, the largest move among six Senate races compared.
Jackson Gained Five Of His Seven Cents On Oct. 19 And 20
Kalshi’s Maine Senate market has Jackson at 64 cents. The exchange’s daily price history shows him at 57 at the Oct. 15 close, 59 at the close of Oct. 18, then 62 on Oct. 19 and 64 on Oct. 20. The Oct. 16 Senate race odds board had him at that same 57.
A Jackson contract bought on Oct. 15 is up seven cents, while one bought now risks 64 cents to win 36, so the early number was the one worth having. A 64-cent price implies roughly a 64% chance of a Democratic win, up from 57%.
The Collins Contract Traded More Than Three Times Its Oct. 15 Volume
Collins fell from 44 cents at the Oct. 15 close to 42 on Oct. 18, 39 on Oct. 19 and 36 on Oct. 20. About 192,000 Collins contracts changed hands on Oct. 20, against about 57,500 on Oct. 15 and about 69,000 on Jackson’s contract that day. A Collins contract now returns 64 cents of profit before fees if she holds the seat, against 56 cents at the earlier price.
Polymarket Closes Its Gap With Kalshi
Polymarket’s price history puts the Democrat at 64.5 cents, up from 59.5 on Oct. 15, and Collins at 35, down from 41.5. Polymarket sat 2.5 cents above Kalshi on Jackson then and now sits half a cent above it, because Kalshi moved seven cents to Polymarket’s five.
Iowa, Not Maine, Is Now The Tightest Of Six Races
Jackson at 57 cents was the lowest-priced favorite of the six races on the wider election odds board on Oct. 15. Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson in Iowa now holds that spot at 58, with Democrat James Talarico in Texas at 63 and Jackson third at 64.
| State | Candidate | Oct. 15 Odds (Cents) | Current Odds (Cents) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine | Troy Jackson (D) | 57 | 64 | +7 |
| Maine | Susan Collins (R) | 44 | 36 | -8 |
| Texas | James Talarico (D) | 62 | 63 | +1 |
| Iowa | Ashley Hinson (R) | 58 | 58 | 0 |
| Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed (D) | 68 | 69 | +1 |
| Alaska | Democrats | 74 | 75 | +1 |
| Nebraska | Pete Ricketts (R) | 75 | 72 | -3 |
Texas Barely Moved On The Deepest Market
Texas is the busiest of the six on Kalshi, with 21.1 million Republican Ken Paxton contracts traded, yet Talarico gained one cent and Paxton lost two, to 37 from 39. In Nebraska, Republican Pete Ricketts fell three cents while independent Dan Osborn ticked up a cent to 28. With the deepest market barely moving, Maine’s seven-cent shift reads as a race-specific repricing, not a drift across the board.
The Maine election odds page tracks the race through Election Day, when voters decide it Nov. 3, 13 days from now.
