- Roy Cooper is at 96.7% in North Carolina and Mary Peltola at 69% in Alaska, the two highest Democratic prices in Republican-held seats.
- James Talarico (69%), Sherrod Brown (68%) and Troy Jackson (62%) are the Democratic favorites in Texas, Ohio and Maine.
- Iowa’s Ashley Hinson is at 54% over Josh Turek and Nebraska’s Pete Ricketts at 70% over independent Dan Osborn.
- Democrats need a net gain of four seats, with Michigan’s Abdul El-Sayed at 71% the lowest of four defended seats priced.
WASHINGTON – Election markets favor Democrats in five Republican-held seats on the Senate battleground odds 2026 board five days before the Nov. 3 midterms, with Mary Peltola at 69% in Alaska, James Talarico at 69% in Texas and Sherrod Brown at 68% in Ohio leading the contested races. North Carolina’s Roy Cooper, at 96.7%, is close enough to a lock that he sits outside the contest. Iowa’s Ashley Hinson at 54% and Nebraska’s Pete Ricketts at 70% keep those two seats leaning Republican.
Democrats Are Favored In Five Republican-Held Seats, One More Than The Four They Need
Republicans hold the Senate 53-47, according to CBS News’ midterm race list, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a 51-seat majority. At 50-50, Vice President JD Vance would break ties for Republicans. Five seats carry election odds of 62% or better for Democrats. That covers the four they need if they keep every seat they hold, and it still reaches 51 if they lose one.
The table ranks eight Republican-held seats on the Senate election odds board, strongest Democratic price first.
| State | Challenger | Challenger Odds | Republican | Republican Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | Roy Cooper | 96.7% | Michael Whatley | 3.6% |
| Alaska | Mary Peltola | 69% | Dan Sullivan | 32% |
| Texas | James Talarico | 69% | Ken Paxton | 32% |
| Ohio (special) | Sherrod Brown | 68% | Jon Husted | 33% |
| Maine | Troy Jackson | 62% | Susan Collins | 39% |
| Iowa | Josh Turek | 47% | Ashley Hinson | 54% |
| Nebraska | Dan Osborn (I) | 31% | Pete Ricketts | 70% |
| Florida (special) | Angie Nixon | 11% | Ashley Moody | 89% |
Source: election-market prices. Challengers are Democrats except Nebraska’s Osborn, an independent. Each candidate’s price is quoted separately, so a race’s two prices can total slightly over 100%.
Cooper’s 96.7% Makes North Carolina A Near-Lock And Peltola Leads The Contested Seats
Cooper, the former governor, is at 96.7% against Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chairman, at 3.6%. At that price a Cooper position carries under four points of upside, and the seat reads as the first of the four flips Democrats need.
The contest for the other three starts in Alaska, where Peltola, a former U.S. representative, is at 69% at one market and 70.5% at the other, to Sen. Dan Sullivan’s 32%. Peltola was at 74% on Oct. 28, so her price fell five points in a day, the largest move on the board.
Brown And Talarico Hold 68% And 69% While Maine’s Jackson Sits At 62%
Brown, the former senator, is at 68% at one market and 69% at the other, against Sen. Jon Husted at 33%. Brown was at 63% on Oct. 16, five points lower. Husted was appointed to the seat JD Vance vacated.
Talarico, a state representative, is at 69% to Ken Paxton’s 32%, up from the 66% he held Oct. 28 and a point above his 68% close on Oct. 21, the highest since the market opened. Paxton, the state attorney general, beat Sen. John Cornyn for the Republican nomination.
Maine’s Troy Jackson is at 62% to Sen. Susan Collins’ 39%, two points below the 64% he held Oct. 21. Jackson replaced Graham Platner on the ballot after Platner bowed out in July. At 62%, Maine is the fifth and thinnest Democratic favorite, the seat that supplies the margin for error.
Ohio is the fourth flip on the board by price, so a Democratic majority that holds all its own seats has to win Ohio, where Brown is at 68%. The two markets price Democratic control of the Senate at 67% and 67.5%, within a point of that Ohio price. No other race sits closer to the Senate control price.
Michigan’s El-Sayed At 71% Is The Weakest Of Four Democratic Defenses
Democrats also defend seats the markets price below a lock. Jon Ossoff is at 96% in Georgia, Chris Pappas at 90% in New Hampshire, Peggy Flanagan at 90% in Minnesota and Abdul El-Sayed at 71% in Michigan, where Sen. Gary Peters is retiring.
El-Sayed’s price sits three points above Brown’s, so a Democratic hold in Michigan is priced only slightly above a Democratic flip in Ohio. A Michigan loss would raise the bar to five flips, which would require Maine at 62% along with Cooper, Peltola, Talarico and Brown.
Hinson Is At 54% In Iowa While Two Recent Polls Have Turek Ahead
Hinson, a Republican congresswoman, is at 54% to state Rep. Josh Turek’s 47% for the open seat of Sen. Joni Ernst, who is not seeking reelection. Hinson was at 58% on Oct. 16 and 57% on Oct. 28, so the Iowa election odds have moved three points toward Turek in a day.
A Fox News poll of 1,008 likely voters fielded Sept. 24-28 had Turek at 49% and Hinson at 47%, with a margin of error of 3 points. A YouGov survey of 2,245 likely voters fielded Oct. 6-12 had Turek at 47% and Hinson at 46%, Newsweek reported. Both leads sit inside the margin of error, so the polls do not separate the candidates, yet the 7-point price gap is wider than either lead. That leaves Turek priced below the public polling.
Nebraska’s Osborn Is At 31% And Has Said He Would Not Caucus With Either Party
Ricketts is at 70% to Osborn’s 31% in Nebraska, down from 75% on Oct. 15. NBC News reported in 2025 that Osborn would not caucus with either party if elected. An Osborn win would therefore not add to the Democratic total on its own, which makes Nebraska the only race on the board where a challenger win is not a clear Democratic gain.
Florida’s Nixon Is The Longest Shot On The Board At 11%
Sen. Ashley Moody is at 89% in the Florida special election against state Rep. Angie Nixon at 11%. Moody was appointed to the seat Marco Rubio vacated, and the winner serves the rest of the term through January 2029. Voters decide the race Nov. 3.
