- Connecticut holds its primary on August 11. Thanks to the state's convention system, most races were already settled, so the ballot is short. There is no Senate race this year.
- The headline race, the Democratic primary for governor, is not much of a contest. Gov. Ned Lamont, seeking a third term, is a 96 percent favorite on Polymarket over progressive challenger Josh Elliott.
- The Republican side is just as settled. State Sen. Ryan Fazio, endorsed at the party convention, is a near-lock at 99 percent and will face Lamont in a race rated Solid Democratic.
- The more competitive fight is in the 1st District, where former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin is challenging longtime Rep. John Larson in the Democratic primary.
- Even a quiet primary drew real money. More than $100,000 has been wagered on Connecticut's races, most of it on the Lamont-Elliott contest.
HARTFORD, Conn. - Connecticut votes Tuesday, and for a bettor it is one of the quietest primaries left on the calendar. The state settles most of its nominations at party conventions, so only a handful of races made the ballot, and the biggest of them is close to decided. Gov. Ned Lamont, one of the most popular governors in the country, is cruising toward a third Democratic nomination. There is no Senate seat up this year. Still, the races drew real betting interest, and one contest down the ballot is a genuine tossup. The full slate is on the Connecticut election odds.
Governor: Lamont's Near-Lock and a Protest Vote
The Democratic primary for governor is chalk. Lamont, who has a 63 percent approval rating and won the party endorsement with 75 percent at the May convention, is a 96 percent favorite on the governor odds to beat state Rep. Josh Elliott. Elliott, a progressive from Hamden, forced the primary by clearing 25 percent at the convention. His campaign is really about a bigger question: whether Connecticut wants a younger, more progressive leader, or a third term for a 72-year-old incumbent. He will not win, but polls suggest he could take a real chunk of the vote, so the number to watch is his margin, not the winner. On the Republican side, state Sen. Ryan Fazio is a near-lock at 99 percent. He won the party endorsement over Betsy McCaughey, Erin Stewart, and others. Whoever wins, the general election is rated Solid Democratic. Connecticut has not elected a Republican to statewide office since 2006, and Lamont won his last race by 13 points.
The House and the Rest of the Ballot
The best bet on the board is not the governor's race but a House primary. In the 1st District, around Hartford, former Mayor Luke Bronin is challenging Rep. John Larson, who has held the seat since 1999. It is the same generational theme as the Lamont race: a younger challenger against a long-serving incumbent. And it is close enough that traders have put nearly $40,000 on it. On the House odds, it is Connecticut's one genuinely competitive primary. The state's other four House seats are all held by Democrats and drew no serious primary challenge. Rep. Rosa DeLauro, for one, turned back a petition effort to force a primary in the 3rd District. The most competitive of the five in November is the 5th District, held by Democrat Jahana Hayes, but that is a fall story. Down the ballot, Attorney General William Tong is seeking a third term, and a few state legislative primaries fill out the card.
The Bettor's Read
Connecticut is a chalk state, but a busy one for a quiet night. Lamont at 96 percent and Fazio at 99 are not bets worth making at those prices, and the general election is Solid Democratic no matter who emerges. The value, such as it is, sits in two places. First, the size of Josh Elliott's vote, which will say something about how restless Connecticut Democrats are with an older incumbent. Second, and more interesting, the 1st District. Luke Bronin has a real shot at knocking off John Larson, the one race in the state where the winner is genuinely in doubt. It is worth noting how much money moved here at all. More than $100,000 was wagered on a primary with almost no suspense at the top, a sign of how far prediction markets have spread. As always, refresh before you act. For the full board of election odds, Connecticut is the rare primary where the safest races drew the most cash and the real drama hid down the ballot.
