- Minnesota holds its primary on August 11, and it is a wide-open ballot. Sen. Tina Smith is retiring, so her Senate seat is open, and Gov. Tim Walz ended his reelection bid, so the governor's office is open too.
- The marquee race is the Democratic Senate primary, a moderate-versus-progressive fight between Rep. Angie Craig and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan.
- The odds and the polls disagree sharply. Polymarket and Kalshi make Flanagan about a 72 percent favorite, but a recent poll had the two tied at 40 percent each. Craig has raised nearly twice as much money.
- The governor's race is settled on the Democratic side. Sen. Amy Klobuchar jumped in after Walz stepped aside and is a near-lock for the nomination, then a heavy favorite in the fall.
- The Republican governor primary is the colorful one, pitting House Minority Leader Lisa Demuth against MyPillow founder and election denier Mike Lindell.
ST. PAUL, Minn. - Minnesota votes Tuesday, and two surprise exits at the top of the state's politics have turned it into one of the busiest ballots of the summer. Sen. Tina Smith is retiring, leaving the first open Senate seat in Minnesota in 20 years. Gov. Tim Walz, fresh off a losing run for vice president, ended his bid for a third term, opening the governor's office. The reshuffle set off a chain reaction down the ballot. For a bettor, though, one race stands out, and it comes with a puzzle: the market and the polls flatly disagree. The full slate is on the Minnesota election odds.
U.S. Senate: The Bet Worth Making
The Democratic primary for Smith's open seat is the race to watch, and it is a familiar fight, a moderate against a progressive. Rep. Angie Craig, who flipped a swing district in 2018 and built a business-friendly record, is running against Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, a progressive who carries the party's official endorsement. Here is what makes it a bet. On the U.S. Senate odds, Polymarket and Kalshi make Flanagan about a 72 percent favorite. The polls say something else. A recent KSTP survey had Craig and Flanagan tied at 40 percent each, with 16 percent undecided. And Craig has the money edge, raising $12.8 million to Flanagan's $6.5 million, roughly double. So the market is heavily on the progressive while the polls call it even, the same split that showed up in Michigan last week, where the market's progressive favorite won a nail-biter over a moderate. The endorsements line up as you would guess. Flanagan has Smith, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Rep. Ilhan Omar, while Craig has Nancy Pelosi, Hakeem Jeffries, Pete Buttigieg, and Minnesota first lady Gwen Walz. Immigration has been the sharpest issue, with Flanagan hitting Craig for a 2025 vote on the Laken Riley Act. Republicans hold their own contested primary, with retired Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze the party-endorsed pick, but the market makes the Democrat about a 95 percent favorite to hold the seat in November.
Governor: Klobuchar Coasts, and a MyPillow Cameo
The governor's race is the opposite of the Senate. On the Democratic side, it is over. When Walz stepped aside, three-term Sen. Amy Klobuchar jumped in, won the party endorsement, and cleared the field. On the governor odds, she is a near-lock for the nomination and a heavy favorite for the fall, priced around 93 percent to keep the office for Democrats. Walz's exit was not entirely his choice. A state fraud investigation into childcare programs has dogged his administration and become a Republican talking point. The real contest is the Republican primary, and it is a spectacle. House Minority Leader Lisa Demuth, the establishment pick, is running against Mike Lindell, the MyPillow founder and election denier, along with others. The market favors Demuth. Either way, the winner starts as a deep underdog against Klobuchar in a state that has not elected a Republican governor in 20 years.
The House and Down the Ballot
The reshuffle reached the House too. Craig's run for Senate opened her seat in the 2nd District, a genuine swing seat that both parties will contest hard in November, which makes its primaries worth a look on the House odds. In the 5th District, progressive Rep. Ilhan Omar faces another primary challenge, though she is favored to survive it in her safely blue Minneapolis seat. Down the ballot, Attorney General Keith Ellison is seeking a third term, and every seat in the Legislature is up. That last part matters more than usual, because the state House is tied at 67 seats each, so November could decide which party runs the chamber. Most of these races run through Tuesday's primaries first.
The Bettor's Read
Minnesota offers one real primary bet and a lot of chalk around it. The live wager is the Democratic Senate race, where the market's 72 percent on Flanagan sits well ahead of a poll that has the race tied. If you trust the odds, and the Michigan result that just rewarded the market's progressive pick, Flanagan is your play. If you trust the polls and Craig's money, she is a live underdog at a good price. The governor's race is settled: Klobuchar is chalk for the nomination and a heavy favorite in the fall. The generals both lean strongly Democratic, around 95 percent for the Senate and 93 for governor, even in a state Republicans keep hoping to crack. The 2nd District is the House race to track, and the tied Legislature is the sleeper stake. As always, primary-night prices move fast, so refresh before you act. For the full board of election odds, Minnesota is the last big primary of the summer, and the only one where the smart money and the polls are pulling in opposite directions.
