- Connecticut voted Tuesday, and the surprise came down the ballot. In the 1st District, former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin defeated longtime Rep. John Larson in the Democratic primary, taking about 54 percent.
- Larson had held the seat since 1999 and was seeking a 15th term. His loss extends a summer of incumbents falling to primary challengers across the country.
- At the top of the ticket, there was no drama. Gov. Ned Lamont beat progressive challenger Josh Elliott by more than two to one, exactly as the markets expected.
- Lamont, seeking a third term, will face Republican state Sen. Ryan Fazio in November in a race rated Solid Democratic.
- For bettors, the lesson was clear. The chalk at the top paid nothing worth chasing, while the one race in doubt, the 1st District, broke for the challenger.
HARTFORD, Conn. - Connecticut voted Tuesday, and the night split neatly in two. At the top of the ballot, the favorites won easily, and Gov. Ned Lamont cruised to a third Democratic nomination. Down the ballot, the one race anyone was unsure about delivered a shock. Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin knocked off Rep. John Larson, who has represented the 1st District for nearly 30 years. It was, as one local outlet put it, a political earthquake. And it was the race our preview flagged as the only real bet in the state. The full board is on the Connecticut election odds.
The Upset: Bronin Topples a 30-Year Incumbent
The story of the night was in the 1st District, around Hartford, where Luke Bronin beat John Larson for the Democratic nomination, taking about 54 percent with nearly all the vote counted. Larson, who is 78 and has held the seat since 1999, was seeking a 15th term, and a health scare on the House floor last year had raised quiet questions about his age. Bronin, the younger former mayor, carried the party's endorsement, and outside groups poured more than $2 million into the race. On the House race odds, it was the one Connecticut contest anyone was betting on, and the challenger won. The result fits a pattern that has run all summer, with longtime Democratic incumbents losing primaries in New York and Michigan. Because the district is safely blue, Bronin is now all but certain to go to Congress. The state's other four House seats stayed with their Democratic incumbents, and the most competitive of them in November remains the 5th District, held by Jahana Hayes.
Governor: Lamont Cruises to a Third Nomination
At the top, it went to form. Lamont beat progressive state Rep. Josh Elliott by more than a two-to-one margin, and the Associated Press called it 20 minutes after polls closed. The market had him around 96 percent, so the odds were right, and Elliott's challenge, while spirited, never seriously threatened the popular incumbent. It was a notable win anyway. Lamont is the first Connecticut governor to survive a primary challenge in 48 years, and a third term would make him the state's longest-serving governor in more than 200 years. He will face Republican state Sen. Ryan Fazio, the party's endorsed candidate, in November. On the governor odds, that race is rated Solid Democratic. Connecticut has not elected a Republican to statewide office since 2006, and Lamont won his last two races by 3 and 13 points.
The Bettor's Read
Connecticut was a tale of two ballots for anyone with money on the line. The races at the top were chalk. Lamont at 96 percent and Fazio as the unopposed Republican were not bets worth making at those prices, and the general election is Solid Democratic no matter what. All the value sat in the one race that was genuinely uncertain, the 1st District, and it rewarded anyone who backed the challenger. Bronin's win over Larson is the latest sign that a long record and a safe seat are not the protection they once were, not in a summer when incumbents keep losing. More than $100,000 was wagered on Connecticut's primaries, and the payoff was down the ballot, not at the top. From here, the state is quiet. Lamont is a heavy favorite for a third term, Bronin is headed to a safe seat, and the 5th District is the only fall race worth watching closely. As always, refresh before you act. For the full board of election odds, Connecticut proved again that the safest races draw the money and the real drama hides underneath.
