- Minnesota voted Tuesday, and progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan won the Democratic Senate primary in a rout over moderate Rep. Angie Craig. She faces Republican Michele Tafoya in November.
- The markets were right, and then some. Polymarket and Kalshi had Flanagan around 72 percent, even though a recent poll had the race tied at 40 each. She won going away.
- Money did not save Craig. She nearly doubled Flanagan's fundraising and had millions in outside help, but voters had settled, and she lost decisively.
- The governor's race is set and historic. Sen. Amy Klobuchar won the Democratic nomination, and House Speaker Lisa Demuth won the Republican side, so a woman will lead Minnesota for the first time.
- Republican voters went their own way. Demuth beat Trump-backed Mike Lindell and the party's endorsed pick, and Michele Tafoya beat the party-endorsed candidate for Senate.
ST. PAUL, Minn. - Minnesota voted Tuesday, and the race everyone was watching went the way the betting markets said it would, only more so. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, the progressive, did not just win the Democratic primary for the open Senate seat. She routed Rep. Angie Craig, the moderate, in a result that made the polls look badly off and the market look sharp. On the other side of the ballot, two more surprises reshaped the Republican field. With the nominees set, the Minnesota election odds now turn to a fall that features a piece of history.
The Senate: The Market's Rout
This was a big night for the markets and a hard one for the polls. Flanagan beat Craig decisively for the Democratic nomination to replace retiring Sen. Tina Smith. That is exactly what the odds pointed to. On the U.S. Senate odds, Polymarket and Kalshi had made Flanagan about a 72 percent favorite, while the last public poll had the race tied at 40 percent each. The market was not just right on the winner, it was right that this would not be close. The money made it more striking. Craig nearly doubled Flanagan's fundraising and had millions in outside spending on her side, yet she lost in a rout. It is a reminder that cash cannot move voters who have already made up their minds. It is also the second straight moderate-versus-progressive Senate primary the market's progressive pick has won, after Abdul El-Sayed's narrow victory in Michigan last week, though Flanagan's was no nail-biter. On the Republican side, former sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya won the nomination over Adam Schwarze, the candidate the party had endorsed, and will face Flanagan in a general election that leans Democratic.
Governor: Klobuchar vs Demuth, and a Republican Rebuke
The governor's race produced its own headlines. On the Democratic side, three-term Sen. Amy Klobuchar cruised to the nomination, as expected. The Republican primary was the surprise. House Speaker Lisa Demuth won with about 44 percent, beating both MyPillow founder Mike Lindell, who had President Trump's endorsement, and Kendall Qualls, the candidate the state party had endorsed. In other words, Republican voters rejected both Trump's pick and their own party's, choosing the one they saw as most electable. On the governor odds, Klobuchar starts as a heavy favorite, priced around 93 percent, in a state that has not elected a Republican governor in 20 years. The matchup makes history either way. Klobuchar against Demuth guarantees that Minnesota will have a woman as governor for the first time.
The House and the Down-Ballot
The reshuffle at the top reached the House. Craig's run for Senate left her 2nd District seat open, and both parties settled competitive primaries there Tuesday to set up a November race that will be one of the country's true battlegrounds, the kind of contest that lights up the House odds in the fall. In the safely blue 5th District, progressive Rep. Ilhan Omar faced another primary challenge. The bigger pattern was the one Flanagan set at the top. Progressives had a strong night across Minnesota, the latest in a summer of primaries that have pushed Democrats leftward. And do not overlook the Legislature, where every seat was on the ballot and the state House sits tied at 67 seats each, meaning November could decide who runs the chamber.
The Bettor's Read
Minnesota was the clearest markets-beat-polls result of the summer. The odds had Flanagan at 72 percent while the polls said dead heat, and she won in a rout, rewarding anyone who trusted the market over the survey. It is a pattern worth remembering. In the moderate-versus-progressive fights that have defined this Democratic primary season, the markets have kept getting the progressive right. The Republican primaries were the night's real upsets, with voters brushing aside both Trump and the party in the governor's race. As for the fall, both marquee races lean Democratic. Klobuchar is a heavy favorite for governor, and Flanagan is favored, if less overwhelmingly, over Tafoya for the Senate, with her progressive label the one opening Republicans will press. The 2nd District is the House race to watch, and the tied Legislature is the sleeper. As always, refresh before you act. For the full board of election odds, Minnesota closed the primary season by proving, one more time, that the smart money saw it coming.
