Maryland Primary Results: Moore-Cox Rematch Is Set, and Boafo Wins the 24-Way Scramble for Hoyer's Seat
- Gov. Wes Moore rolled to renomination while Dan Cox grabbed the Republican slot, locking in a rerun of their 2022 race, the one Moore took by 32 points. Bettors never doubted either: Moore sat near 94% on Polymarket for a fall win, and Kalshi gave Cox about 86% for the nomination.
- The only genuinely open contest, the vacant MD-05 seat, also broke for the front-runner. Del. Adrian Boafo, carrying retiring Rep. Steny Hoyer's blessing and over $8 million in outside money, prevailed in the 24-candidate Democratic field. He had risen to roughly 90% on Polymarket by the final week.
- Boafo draws Republican Chris Chaffee in November, though in a seat that last went Republican in 1972, taking the Democratic primary settled it.
- Lower on the ballot, the favorites all survived. Kweisi Mfume fended off Mark Conway in MD-07, and April McClain Delaney shut down a comeback try by ex-Rep. David Trone in MD-06.
- Nothing broke form. From the governor's office to the House seats, the wagering markets nailed every Maryland call, leaving only the winning margins in doubt.
ANNAPOLIS. Chalk ran the table in Maryland. Gov. Wes Moore rolled through his Democratic primary on Tuesday, Dan Cox claimed the Republican nod, and the two will square off again in November, a replay of the 2022 contest Moore won by 32 points. Farther down the ballot, the lone suspenseful race, a 24-candidate dash for Steny Hoyer's vacated House seat, also went to the front-runner. Put simply, the wagering markets read the state correctly throughout, the way our Maryland primary preview anticipated.
Governor: A 2022 Rerun Is Locked In
Moore was never threatened. The first-term Democrat swatted away nominal primary opposition, and traders stayed steady, putting the Democrat near 94% to keep the governor's mansion in the fall. For the Republicans, Cox, the MAGA-aligned former delegate Moore routed by 32 points in 2022, claimed the nod a second time. Kalshi had pegged him near 86% to pull it off.
The rematch is locked, but November tilts hard one way. Maryland has not gone Republican for president in decades, and Kamala Harris took it by 29 points in 2024. Moore, already mentioned as a 2028 White House contender, ranks among the most secure names on this year's slate of governor election odds.
MD-05: The Money Candidate Takes the 24-Way Field
The real intrigue lived in the 5th District, where Hoyer is bowing out after 45 years as the longest-serving House Democrat. Two dozen Democrats jumped into the open seat, yet Del. Adrian Boafo, Hoyer's onetime campaign manager and chosen heir, took it without much drama.
Boafo held both the establishment lane and the bankroll. Hoyer, Moore and Sen. Angela Alsobrooks lined up behind him, and north of $8 million in outside spending, a large share from a cryptocurrency super PAC and an AIPAC-tied group, landed in his corner. The price tracked the cash: Boafo, quoted near 73% in our preview seven days earlier, had pushed to about 90% on Polymarket by the final week. Ex-Capitol Police officer Harry Dunn, who amassed a hefty small-dollar war chest, never closed the gap.
In November, Boafo meets Republican Chris Chaffee. But the 5th has stayed blue since 1972, so Tuesday effectively decided it. For the broader House race odds, this primary was the headline.
The Other House Seats Stay Put
The remaining favorites all came through. In MD-07, Rep. Kweisi Mfume held off a younger challenger, Baltimore City Councilman Mark Conway, after sitting near 99% in the market. In MD-06, Rep. April McClain Delaney denied a return to former Rep. David Trone, the man who once held the district, with traders pricing her near 91%. Over in MD-03, Rep. Sarah Elfreth, quoted around 94%, secured renomination. And in MD-01, the state's only Republican-held seat, Democrats picked their fall challenger to Rep. Andy Harris, with Dan Schwartz the market's choice. Rep. Jamie Raskin and the rest of the sitting members advanced without a scare.
How the Markets Graded Out
For anyone placing bets, Maryland gave almost nothing to fade. Every front-runner cashed: Moore near 94% for the governorship, Cox about 86% on the Republican side, Boafo around 90% in MD-05, Mfume near 99% in MD-07, Delaney near 91% in MD-06 and Elfreth around 94% in MD-03. The lone unknown all evening was the size of each win. One caveat worth repeating: each percentage is what bettors paid for a candidate to prevail, not the share of the vote that candidate pulled.
The lesson is plain. In a state tilted this far blue, the primaries that stand in for the real election landed right where the markets had them.
What Tuesday Settled
Maryland's June 23 vote produced no shocks but plenty of weight. The top line is a rematch, Moore against Cox, with Moore a runaway pick for a second term. The enduring chapter belongs to the 5th District, where a 45-year Hoyer era closes and Boafo, 31, opens a fresh one.
Turning to the election odds now, the focus moves to November, where the open question is less who wins than how far the Democrats stretch their lead. Tuesday's favorites came through, and they are favored once more in the fall.
