Maryland Primary Preview: Moore Set to Cruise as 24 Democrats Chase Hoyer's Open Seat
- Maryland votes Tuesday, June 23. The top race, governor, has little suspense: Gov. Wes Moore, a Democrat seeking a second term in a deep-blue state, is set to cruise to renomination and sits around 94% on Polymarket to win in November.
- The Republican primary is a fight over who loses to him. Dan Cox, the 2022 nominee Moore beat by 32 points, is the betting favorite to carry the GOP banner again, priced around 86% on Kalshi.
- Down the ballot, the other House primaries are nearly as one-sided. On Polymarket, Kweisi Mfume sits near 99% in MD-07, Sarah Elfreth around 94% in MD-03, and April McClain Delaney near 91% in MD-06, with Dan Schwartz about 94% to win the Democratic nod to challenge Republican Andy Harris in MD-01.
- The marquee House race is the open MD-05 seat, where Steny Hoyer is retiring after 45 years and 24 Democrats are running. Del. Adrian Boafo, endorsed by Hoyer, Moore and Sen. Angela Alsobrooks, leads the market around 73% on Polymarket, with Harry Dunn a distant second.
- Maryland is so heavily Democratic that the MD-05 primary winner is all but certain to take the seat, the way the June 23 Democratic results will effectively settle most of the House delegation.
ANNAPOLIS - Maryland will hold its primary on Tuesday, June 23, and in a state this blue, most of the suspense sits below the top of the ballot. Gov. Wes Moore, the Democrat elected in 2022, is running for a second term, and neither his renomination nor his November reelection is in much doubt. The races worth watching are the Republican contest to face him and a wide-open scramble for a House seat that has not changed hands in 45 years. Early voting is already underway, running June 11 through 18.
The June 23 ballot is led by the governor's office and all eight U.S. House seats, along with statewide offices such as attorney general and comptroller.
Governor: Moore Will Be Hard to Dislodge
Moore enters the Maryland primary as close to a sure thing as the ballot offers. He won in 2022 by 32 points, the widest Maryland governor's margin since 1990, and no Democratic incumbent has lost a reelection bid in the state since 1950. His approval has slipped from the high 60s into the 50s during a first term shadowed by affordability complaints and a projected $1.5 billion budget gap, but he stays popular, and he is already floated as a 2028 presidential prospect. He will face only token opposition in the Democratic primary, and the betting markets treat a Moore win in November as close to a formality: Polymarket prices the Democrat at about 94% to hold the governorship, one of the safer lines on the board of 2026 gubernatorial odds.
The Republican primary is a race for the right to be the underdog. The field is thin, in large part because former Gov. Larry Hogan, the only Maryland Republican with a statewide brand, ruled out a run back in January. That leaves Dan Cox, the conservative former state delegate Moore crushed by 32 points in 2022, as the clear front-runner to carry the party banner again. Kalshi prices Cox around 86% to win the nomination, well ahead of a scattered field that includes businessman Ed Hale and several others. Whoever emerges will start November as a long shot in a state Kamala Harris carried by 29 points.
House: 24 Democrats Will Chase Hoyer's Open Seat
The race of the night is in the 5th District, where Rep. Steny Hoyer is stepping down after 45 years, closing out a career that made him the longest-serving House Democrat. His exit opened the floodgates: 24 Democrats filed for the June 23 primary, one of the most crowded open-seat fields in recent Maryland history, in a district anchored in Prince George's County and Southern Maryland that has not elected a Republican since 1972.
One candidate stands above the rest. Del. Adrian Boafo, a 31-year-old state legislator and Hoyer's former campaign manager, carries the retiring congressman's endorsement, plus backing from Moore and Sen. Angela Alsobrooks. The markets reward that establishment lane: Polymarket puts Boafo around 73% to win the nomination, with former U.S. Capitol Police officer Harry Dunn, who raised millions in a 2024 House bid, a distant second in the teens. Former Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker and county council member Wala Blegay sit further back. Because the district leans so lopsidedly Democratic, the primary winner will all but certainly be the next member of Congress.
The rest of the delegation promises fewer fireworks, and the markets agree. In MD-07, Rep. Kweisi Mfume is all but unopposed, near 99% on Polymarket. In MD-03, Rep. Sarah Elfreth sits around 94% to win renomination, and in MD-06, Rep. April McClain Delaney is close behind at about 91%, with former Rep. David Trone the only other name the market prices, near 8%. The lone Republican-held seat, MD-01, hangs in the background: Democrats favor Dan Schwartz, around 94%, to take the nomination and challenge Rep. Andy Harris in the fall, the same seat Moore spent months trying to redraw out of existence before a fellow Democrat, Senate President Bill Ferguson, blocked the effort.
The Odds Board
For a betting audience, Maryland is mostly chalk with one live card. The statewide picture is settled: Polymarket prices the Democrat near 94% to keep the governorship, and on the Republican side Kalshi makes Dan Cox about 86% to win the nomination and the right to lose to Moore again. Most of the House primaries are just as lopsided, with Mfume near 99%, Elfreth and the MD-01 Democratic front-runner around 94%, and Delaney near 91%. The one race with real doubt is MD-05, the rare open House primary that actually trades, where Boafo around 73% is the clear favorite but a 24-way field leaves room for a surprise. Keep in mind these are market prices, the traders' odds of each result, not vote shares.
For readers tracking election odds in Maryland, the watch list is short: whether Boafo closes out the MD-05 field, and whether any down-ballot primary tightens. The top of the ticket is, by Maryland standards, already settled.
The Bottom Line
Maryland's June 23rd primary will not change who is favored to be governor. Moore is on track to coast, and Republicans will choose someone to run uphill against him in a state that has not backed a GOP presidential nominee in decades.
The night's real verdict will come in the 5th District, where a 45-year era ends and 24 Democrats fight to start a new one. For the latest election odds, June 23 is the date to watch, with the general election to follow on Nov. 3.
