- Former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme won Montana’s Republican Senate primary Tuesday night. The AP called the race within minutes of polls closing, with Alme winning by more than 60 percentage points.
- Talk radio host Aaron Flint won the Republican MT-1 primary, defeating Montana Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen — a major upset given that Jacobsen had earned more votes statewide than Trump in 2024.
- Independent Seth Bodnar will now appear alongside Democratic Senate nominee Alani Bankhead in November, creating a three-way race. Polymarket gives Republicans 72-75% odds in November, with Bodnar at 24%.
- Both Trump-endorsed candidates — Alme and Flint — won their primaries in Montana on Tuesday. It was a clean sweep for the president’s preferred nominees in the state.
- The Senate election odds remain heavily Republican heading into November, but Bodnar’s 24% market price is unusually high for an independent in a deep-red state and keeps the race worth watching.
HELENA, Mont. — Montana’s primary Tuesday went exactly the way President Trump had hoped. Both of his endorsed candidates won their races. And the general election is now set for what could be the state’s most unusual Senate contest in a generation.
The results mostly confirmed what prediction markets had already priced. The election odds in Montana still favor Republicans heavily. But the presence of independent Seth Bodnar in the November Senate race is the one variable that keeps traders from treating the seat as fully settled.
Senate: Alme Wins in a Landslide, Bodnar Looms
The Associated Press called the Republican Senate primary for Kurt Alme within minutes of polls closing. With early results in, Alme was winning by more than 60 percentage points.
That margin was not a surprise. Alme entered the race with the backing of both outgoing Sen. Steve Daines and Trump, and faced only token opposition. Daines had withdrawn from his reelection bid just before the filing deadline and cleared the path for Alme.
On the Democratic side, Alani Bankhead won the party’s nomination. She was the most prominent of five Democrats in the primary. Her path to winning in November is steep — Montana has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton carried the state in 1992.
The more interesting dynamic now is Bodnar. The former University of Montana president and West Point graduate, backed by former Sen. Jon Tester, is running as an independent and skipped Tuesday’s primary entirely.
Before the primary, Polymarket gave Republicans 72-75% odds of winning the Senate seat in November, with Bodnar at 24% and Democrats below 2%. Those Senate odds are not expected to shift dramatically after Alme’s clean primary win.
The split opposition — both a Democratic nominee and Bodnar on the November ballot — is the scenario Alme’s team was hoping for. Having two anti-Republican candidates divide the vote makes Alme’s path easier.
About Alme and Bodnar
Alme served as U.S. Attorney for the District of Montana under both Trump administrations. He has never held elected office. His primary victory was one of the least dramatic of the night.
Bodnar brings a different kind of resume. He is a former Green Beret and Rhodes Scholar who later became president of the University of Montana. He has run as a centrist, appealing to moderate Republicans and independents who are frustrated with both parties.
Polling in mid-May showed Alme with double-digit leads over Bodnar in head-to-head matchups. But Bodnar draws crossover support that is harder to capture in traditional party-based polling.
MT-1: Flint Upsets Jacobsen in a Big Win for Trump
The biggest primary upset of the night in Montana was in the Western Congressional District. Talk radio host Aaron Flint defeated Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen, former state Sen. Al Olszewski, and retired teacher Ray Curtis.
Jacobsen was widely viewed as the field’s strongest candidate based on her electoral history. She had won re-election as secretary of state in 2024 with 61% of the vote and had received more total votes statewide than any other Republican on the Montana ballot that year — more even than Trump himself.
But Trump endorsed Flint, and Flint won. It was the second Trump-backed victory of the night in Montana, following Alme’s Senate primary win.
Flint is a conservative talk radio host and former staffer for Rep. Ryan Zinke, who retired citing health concerns. Zinke had endorsed Flint along with Trump, Gov. Greg Gianforte, and Sen. Tim Sheehy.
The MT-1 Democratic primary was still being counted Tuesday night. Former 2024 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Ryan Busse, smokejumper Sam Forstag, former child care executive Russell Cleveland, and rancher Matt Rains were competing for the nomination.
The district was won by Zinke in 2024 with 52.3% of the vote, making it one of the more competitive Republican-held seats in the West. Kalshi does not list the House of Representatives odds in MT-1 as a toss-up, but an open seat on a close-margin district will attract Democratic money and attention.
MT-2: Downing Runs Unopposed, Nothing Changes
Rep. Troy Downing ran unopposed in his Republican primary for Montana’s Eastern District seat and advances easily to November. The district is safe Republican and Kalshi does not list it among competitive races.
The Bottom Line
Montana’s primary went smoothly for Trump. Both of his endorsed candidates won. The general election map is set.
The Senate race remains the state’s most interesting betting market. Alme is the heavy favorite but Bodnar’s 24% market price is real. Those election odds reflect genuine uncertainty about how independent voters in a state with a long history of ticket-splitting will behave.
MT-1 is the House race to watch. Flint is now the Republican nominee in a district that was already below 55% for Republicans in 2024. The Democratic nominee who emerges from Tuesday’s primary will have a competitive race on their hands.
All Montana general elections are set for November 3, 2026.
