- New Jersey holds its primary today, June 2. The state has no governor’s race in 2026 — that race was settled last November when Democrat Mikie Sherrill won by 14 points.
- Sen. Cory Booker is seeking a third full term. Kalshi and 270toWin both treat the seat as safely Democratic. No credible Republican challenger has emerged.
- NJ-7, held by Republican Thomas Kean Jr., is the most competitive House race in the state. Kalshi gives Democrats a 78% chance of flipping it, with Polymarket at 75%.
- NJ-9 is the other race to watch. Republicans are targeting Democratic incumbent Nellie Pou after the district narrowly voted for Trump in 2024.
- The election odds in New Jersey are heavily Democratic at the top of the ticket, but the two House battlegrounds give Republicans a narrow path to defending the majority.
TRENTON, N.J. — New Jersey is holding its primary election today. Polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern.
The state does not have a governor’s race in 2026. New Jersey held its gubernatorial election last year, in November 2025, when Democrat Mikie Sherrill won by 14.36 points. That race is settled.
What’s left for 2026 is a Senate race and a House delegation that includes two competitive seats. Here is where the election odds in New Jersey stand.
Senate: Booker Is Safe, No Matter Who Republicans Nominate
Sen. Cory Booker is running for a third full term. He faces four nominal Democratic challengers in the primary — Saxon Callahan, Chris Fields, Lisa McCormick, and Gregory Richard Tomaini — none of whom has mounted a serious challenge.
On the Republican side, Robert Lebovics is the only candidate who filed. The GOP has not put up a serious challenger in this race.
270toWin, citing Kalshi’s market data, notes plainly that Booker should have little trouble winning a third full term regardless of which Republican wins the party’s nomination. New Jersey has not elected a Republican senator since Clifford Case won his last term in 1972. Booker won reelection in 2020 with 57% of the vote.
Cory Booker
Booker, 57, was first elected to the Senate in a 2013 special election and has held the seat since. A former mayor of Newark, he is one of the most recognizable Democrats in the country.
Earlier in 2026, Booker drew national attention when he delivered a roughly 25-hour Senate floor speech opposing a Republican fiscal bill — a marathon address that he said was done in the tradition of Senate filibusters to raise awareness about cuts to Medicaid.
The speech raised his profile heading into the election year. For bettors, the Senate election odds offer little action. The real contests are in the House.
NJ-7: Kean Is the Most Vulnerable Republican in the State
Rep. Thomas Kean Jr. holds New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District, one of the swingiest seats in the country. He won in 2022 and again in 2024, but his margins have been narrow each time.
Kalshi gives Democrats a 78% chance of flipping NJ-7 in November. Polymarket is at 75%. Both markets have been moving consistently in Democrats’ direction throughout 2026.
Four Democrats are competing for the right to face Kean: former Navy helicopter pilot Rebecca Bennett, former Small Business Administration official Michael Roth, ICU physician Tina Shah, and businessman Brian Varela. An internal poll commissioned by a group backing Shah showed her narrowly leading Kean 46%-43% in a hypothetical general election matchup.
Kean ran unopposed in the Republican primary. His focus is already on the general election. But a 78% market price against him says the path is steep.
NJ-9: The Other Race to Watch
New Jersey’s 9th Congressional District, covering parts of Bergen, Hudson, and Passaic counties, voted narrowly for Donald Trump in 2024. That made it a Republican target heading into 2026.
Democratic incumbent Nellie Pou is running unopposed in today’s primary. Republicans have two candidates competing for their nomination: Clifton City Councilwoman Rosemary Pino and personal injury attorney Tiffany Burress.
The district is more competitive than NJ-7 in Republican terms — Trump’s 2024 win there reflects the broader shift of Latino and working-class voters toward Republicans in northern New Jersey. House election odds at Kalshi treat NJ-9 as competitive, though Democrats retain a structural edge.
NJ-11: Open Seat After Sherrill’s Move to the Governor’s Office
Rep. Mikie Sherrill left her congressional seat to run for governor last year, creating an open-seat race in New Jersey’s 11th District. Twelve Democrats are competing in today’s primary.
The district has been reliably Democratic since redistricting following the 2020 census. Cook Political Report and Kalshi both rate the November general election as safe Democratic, so the primary winner will almost certainly be the next representative.
The Bottom Line
New Jersey’s Senate seat is settled. The governor’s race happened last year. The two races that matter for prediction market bettors in November are NJ-7 and NJ-9.
NJ-7 leans heavily Democratic. Kean is running against a market that has priced him at 78% to lose. NJ-9 is the rarer opportunity — a Democratic-held seat where Republicans have a genuine argument based on recent presidential voting.
Once tonight’s primary produces nominees in both competitive races, the general election odds will sharpen quickly. For bettors tracking the House control fight, New Jersey’s two battleground districts are worth following all the way to November.
New Jersey’s primary is today, June 2, 2026. Both general elections are set for November 3, 2026.
