- Deb Haaland won the Democratic governor primary decisively over Bernalillo County DA Sam Bregman. She will face former Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull, who won the three-way Republican primary, in November.
- Kalshi does not list the New Mexico governor’s race as a competitive general election market, treating it as a safe Democratic hold in a state that has not elected a Republican governor since 2003.
- Sen. Ben Ray Luján won his Democratic primary with 86% of the vote. The Senate race is not considered competitive, as no major Republican qualified for the general election ballot.
- In NM-2, Trump-endorsed former Marine and Albuquerque police detective Greg Cunningham won the Republican primary and will face Democratic incumbent Rep. Gabe Vasquez in what is expected to be the most competitive race in the state.
- NM-2 is the only race in the state where the election odds are meaningfully in play. Vasquez has won the seat twice but always by narrow margins in a district that still leans competitive at the federal level.
SANTA FE, N.M. — Tuesday’s New Mexico primary produced little drama at the top of the ticket and one genuinely important result further down the ballot.
Deb Haaland won the Democratic governor’s primary going away. Ben Ray Luján crushed his only Senate challenger. And in the state’s only contested congressional primary, Trump delivered a nomination for Greg Cunningham in the 2nd Congressional District.
Now the general election picture is set. And the only race that moves the election odds in New Mexico is NM-2.
Governor: Haaland Wins Easily, Hull Advances From a Three-Way Race
Haaland’s primary win was not a surprise. She had led Bregman by wide margins on Kalshi throughout the race, sitting at 92% to win the Democratic nomination heading into Tuesday.
She beat Bregman decisively and advances as the significant November favorite based on gubernatorial odds. If she wins in the fall, she would become the first Native American woman, based on her membership as part of the Pueblo of Laguna tribe, ever elected governor in U.S. history.
Haaland served in Congress representing Albuquerque’s 1st District and then became President Biden’s Interior Secretary in 2021. Her platform has focused on tribal sovereignty, education, and New Mexico’s relationship with federal agencies.
On the Republican side, former Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull won the three-way primary. Hull had led in limited polling, and a mid-May Public Opinion Strategies survey had shown the race within the margin of error. But he held on and advances to face Haaland in November.
The general election is not expected to be close. New Mexico has not elected a Republican governor since Gary Johnson left office in 2003. Kalshi does not list the race among its competitive general election markets. Republicans make up only about 30% of registered voters in the state.
Senate: Luján Advances With 86%, Nobody Credible on the Republican Side
Sen. Ben Ray Luján won the Democratic primary with 86% of the vote. His only challenger, Matt Dodson, a community organizer and Air Force veteran who ran as a democratic socialist from Farmington, finished with just 14%.
The Republican side of this race is unusual. The only candidate who filed for the Republican primary was disqualified. They failed to meet the requirements to stay on the ballot before filing day. A write-in Republican candidate, Larry Marker, had qualified for the ballot by collecting the required signatures, but his path to winning the nomination and then the general election is extremely narrow.
In an April Research & Polling survey, Luján led any Republican matchup by 60 points or more. No prediction market has priced Senate odds for this race as competitive, as it’s considered safely Democratic at both Kalshi and 270toWin.
NM-2: Cunningham Is Set. Now Comes the Hard Part.
The only congressional primary of real consequence in New Mexico was in the 2nd District, and it produced the result Trump had been pushing for.
Greg Cunningham, a former Marine and Albuquerque Police Department detective, was the only active Republican candidate in the race after Jose Orozco dropped out and endorsed him in April. Orozco’s name remained on the ballot because he missed the official withdrawal deadline, but Cunningham was the clear winner.
Trump endorsed Cunningham in April, calling him someone who “knows the Wisdom and Courage required to Defend our Country.” Cunningham’s platform centers on border security and law enforcement, issues that carry weight in a district that stretches from Albuquerque’s South Valley to the U.S.-Mexico border.
His opponent in November will be Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez, who won the seat in 2022 by less than 1 percentage point and won reelection in 2024 by a slightly wider 52.1% to 47.9% margin over then-Trump-backed Republican Yvette Herrell. That history makes the district a genuine battleground with some of the closest House of Representatives odds in the region.
Vasquez ran unopposed in Tuesday’s Democratic primary. He enters the general well-funded and with two competitive wins under his belt. But the district has trended Republican at the presidential level and is viewed as one of the top Republican pickup targets in the Southwest.
This is the race to watch in New Mexico from a betting perspective. Kalshi lists NM-2 among its tracked competitive House general election markets. Cunningham is a credible challenger with Trump’s backing and a resume focused on public safety. But Vasquez has won twice and has shown he can hold the district.
The Bottom Line
New Mexico’s primary set up exactly what prediction markets expected. Haaland is the strong governor’s race favorite. Luján has no real Senate opposition. NM-1 and NM-3 are safe Democratic House seats.
NM-2 is where the action is. Cunningham vs. Vasquez will be one of the more expensive per-voter House races in the country. Both parties know what this district is capable of producing.
For anyone tracking election odds in the Southwest this November, one race in southern New Mexico deserves your full attention.
All New Mexico general elections are set for November 3, 2026.
