New York Primary Preview: Hochul Cruises, and the Real Fights Are in the House
- New York votes Tuesday, June 23. The governor's race is effectively settled: Gov. Kathy Hochul will breeze to the Democratic nomination, and the markets make her about a 91% favorite to win a second term in November.
- The Republican side reshuffled. After Rep. Elise Stefanik launched a campaign and then quit it in December, Trump-endorsed Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman became the front-runner, around 92% on Polymarket to win the GOP nomination.
- The drama is down the ballot. In NY-12, Rep. Jerry Nadler is retiring after more than 30 years, and Assembly member Micah Lasher leads the open primary at about 64% on Polymarket over Alex Bores, with JFK's grandson Jack Schlossberg also in the field.
- NY-13 is the upset watch. Five-term Rep. Adriano Espaillat is locked in a near-tie with DSA-backed challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier, who drew a late boost from Mayor Zohran Mamdani; a June poll had her ahead 39% to 35%.
- NY-21 is open too, after Stefanik chose not to seek reelection. Trump-backed Anthony Constantino leads that Republican primary around 80% over state Assemblyman Robert Smullen.
ALBANY - New York will hold its primary on Tuesday, June 23, and the headline race is the quiet one. Gov. Kathy Hochul, the Democrat who narrowly won a full term in 2022, is running again, and neither her nomination nor her November reelection is in much suspense. The real contests sit down the ballot, in a string of House primaries that will reshape New York's delegation.
The June 23 ballot is led by the governor's office and New York's 26 U.S. House seats, the same kinds of races behind the national House of Representatives odds.
Governor: Hochul Is the Heavy Favorite
Hochul will not be seriously tested for renomination. Her one notable primary challenger, Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, abandoned his bid in February after failing to find traction, and she locked up roughly 85% support at the state convention. She will run with a new ticket mate, former New York City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams, and the prediction markets treat her renomination as a near-certainty.
The general election looks almost as one-sided. No Republican has won the governorship since George Pataki in 2002, and across the 2026 gubernatorial odds few blue-state incumbents sit safer: Kalshi and Polymarket both price the Democrat around 91% to hold the office. Hochul's approval is only middling, and Republicans see her as vulnerable on affordability and crime, but the state's deep Democratic lean keeps her a strong favorite.
The Republican field looks far different than it did a few months ago. Stefanik, a top Trump ally, launched a campaign last fall and then abruptly suspended it in December, announcing at the same time that she would not seek reelection to her House seat. That cleared the lane for Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, who picked up President Trump's endorsement and the state party's backing. Polymarket now makes Blakeman about 92% to win the nomination and the right to run uphill against Hochul.
The House Is Where the Drama Is
With the top of the ticket all but settled, the suspense shifts to several House primaries, most on the Democratic side in safely blue New York City seats where winning the primary is the whole ballgame.
NY-12: Nadler's Open Manhattan Seat
The marquee race sits in the 12th District, covering Manhattan's Upper East Side, Upper West Side and Midtown, where Rep. Jerry Nadler is retiring after more than three decades. His exit set off a crowded, expensive open primary, and it carries the deepest betting market of any House race in the state, with hundreds of thousands of dollars in trading volume.
Assembly member Micah Lasher, who holds endorsements from Nadler and Hochul and is backed by millions in Michael Bloomberg-linked spending, leads on Polymarket at about 64%. Fellow Assembly member Alex Bores, known for his push to regulate artificial intelligence and lifted by tech-world super PAC money, sits second near 37%. The field also includes Jack Schlossberg, a grandson of President John F. Kennedy, and the lawyer George Conway, though both trail badly. In a district this Democratic, the June 23 winner will essentially be the next member of Congress.
NY-13: An Incumbent on Upset Watch
The closest call is in the 13th District, in Upper Manhattan and part of the Bronx, where five-term Rep. Adriano Espaillat is fighting for his seat. His challenger, Darializa Avila Chevalier, a Democratic Socialists of America organizer endorsed by New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, has turned the race into a near-coin-flip. A Data for Progress poll in early June put her ahead 39% to 35%, and the betting markets give her a slight edge, around 55% on Kalshi. Espaillat is leaning on his incumbency and the backing of House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries, but a loss would rank among the night's biggest upsets.
NY-21: Stefanik's Open North Country Seat
Stefanik's decision to leave Congress also threw open the 21st District, a sprawling, Republican-leaning stretch of upstate New York that Trump carried by more than 20 points in 2024. Its GOP primary is the marquee Republican contest of the night. Anthony Constantino, a business owner boosted by a personal Trump endorsement, leads on Polymarket at about 80%, with state Assemblyman Robert Smullen, backed by the state and county parties, well behind near 18%. Whoever wins will start as the favorite to keep the seat red in November.
The Odds Board
For a betting audience, New York splits cleanly. The statewide picture is chalk: Hochul is a near-lock for renomination and about 91% to win in November, while Blakeman, near 92% in the GOP primary, is the heavy favorite to be the Republican she beats. The live money is in the House, where Lasher around 64% leads NY-12, Constantino around 80% leads NY-21, and NY-13 is the genuine toss-up, with Avila Chevalier holding a slight edge over an incumbent. For readers tracking election odds in New York, that is the watch list. Keep in mind these are market prices, the traders' odds of each result, not vote shares.
The Bottom Line
New York's June 23 primary will not change who is favored to be governor. Hochul is on track to coast, and Blakeman will most likely be the Republican chasing her in a state that has not elected a GOP governor in nearly a quarter-century.
The night's real verdicts will come further down. Manhattan will choose a successor to a 30-year incumbent in NY-12, and Upper Manhattan will decide whether to keep Espaillat or hand his seat to a democratic socialist in NY-13. For the latest election odds, June 23 is the date that counts, with the general election to follow on Nov. 3.
