South Carolina Primary Recap: Evette and Wilson Head to a Governor Runoff

    • South Carolina's primary results left the governor's race unsettled. No Republican hit 50%, so Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette and Attorney General Alan Wilson advance to a June 23 runoff.
    • Evette led the first round with about 29% of the vote. Wilson took about 26%. Reps. Ralph Norman and Nancy Mace and businessman Rom Reddy were knocked out.
    • State Rep. Jermaine Johnson won the Democratic primary for governor and will face the Republican runoff winner in November.
    • Sen. Lindsey Graham easily won his Republican primary and will meet Democrat Annie Andrews in the fall. Forecasters rate the seat safe for Republicans.
    • Before the vote, Kalshi gave Republicans about a 91% chance to keep the governor's office in November. That makes the June 23 runoff the race that matters most for bettors.

COLUMBIA, S.C. - The South Carolina primary results from Tuesday left the biggest race in the state unsettled. The fight to be the next governor is not over. It is just getting started.

No Republican reached 50% of the vote. That sends the top two finishers to a runoff on June 23.

Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette finished first with about 29%. Attorney General Alan Wilson came in second with about 26%. The rest of the field fell well short.

Evette had the backing of President Donald Trump and Gov. Henry McMaster. That support made her the favorite on betting markets before a single vote was counted. But a 29% first-place finish is not a win. Now she has to do it again, one on one, in two weeks.

Governor: A Two-Person Runoff

The first round was crowded. U.S. Rep. Ralph Norman took about 17%. Businessman Rom Reddy took about 14%. U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace finished last among the major candidates at about 12%.

Mace and Norman both gave up seats in Congress to run, and both came up empty. Mace said she would back Wilson in the runoff. That endorsement, plus a one-on-one race, gives Wilson a real path.

The two finalists plan to debate June 16 in Conway. The runoff follows on June 23.

Whoever wins will start as the heavy favorite in November. South Carolina is a deeply red state. A Democrat has not won the governor's office here since 1998.

On the Democratic side, state Rep. Jermaine Johnson won his primary. He will wait to see which Republican he draws.

What the Odds Say

This is where the betting view gets interesting. The runoff is the real contest. The general election may not be.

Before the primary, the prediction market Kalshi gave Republicans about a 91% chance to hold the governor's office in November. Polymarket sat near 92%. The message is simple. The market expects the Republican nominee to win in the fall, no matter the name on the ticket.

So the money and the attention now move to the runoff. On Kalshi, Evette had been the clear favorite to win the nomination, sitting near 79% before the vote. Wilson trailed far behind. A tight first round and Mace's support could close that gap fast.

That is why the governor election betting odds now point to the runoff as the race that matters. For anyone tracking election odds in South Carolina, the next number to watch is the runoff line, not the November line.

Senate: Graham Cruises

Sen. Lindsey Graham had an easy night. He won the Republican primary outright and avoided a runoff.

He will face Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, in November. Graham has held this seat since 2002 and won his last race by about 10 points. Forecasters rate the seat safe for Republicans, and the Senate odds say the same thing his record does. The primary did not move that picture.

House: SC-1 Goes to a Runoff Too

South Carolina's 1st District is open this year. Mace left the coastal seat to run for governor, and a big field lined up to replace her.

No one won a majority, so both parties are headed to June 23 runoffs. On the Republican side, Jenny Costa Honeycutt finished first and will face Mark Smith.

The district leans Republican, and the House of Representatives odds line up with that. Trump carried it in 2024, and Mace won it by more than 16 points that year. That means the GOP runoff most likely decides the seat.

The Bottom Line

South Carolina did what red states often do. It pushed its biggest fights into the primary instead of the general election.

The governor's runoff is the headline. Evette starts in front. Wilson has room to grow. Two weeks of head-to-head campaigning will settle it.

For now, the smart money still sees a Republican governor, a fifth term for Graham, and a Republican hold in the 1st District. The only open question is which Republicans.

For anyone following election odds across the 2026 map, South Carolina is a reminder that in a deep red state the primary can be the whole story.

South Carolina's primary runoffs are set for June 23. The general election is Nov. 3, 2026.

John Claudette

John spent over three decades as a political analyst and campaign strategist before turning to writing full-time. Having witnessed firsthand the shifting tides of American politics from the local precinct level to the national stage, he brings a seasoned perspective to electoral forecasting and odds analysis. Now, he channels that hard-won experience into accessible, data-driven commentary that cuts through the noise of the 24-hour news cycle. When he's not crunching polling data, he can be found on the golf course — still convinced every putt is a sure thing.

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