- New Mexico holds its primary today, June 2. The governor’s race, Senate seat, and all three House districts will set their nominees heading into November.
- Former U.S. Interior Secretary Deb Haaland leads the Democratic governor’s primary at 92% on Kalshi, narrowly ahead of Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman. Kalshi rates the general election as likely Democratic.
- Sen. Ben Ray Luján’s Senate race has no Republican on the official primary ballot. The only Republican who filed was disqualified, leaving a write-in candidate as the GOP’s only path to the November ballot.
- New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District is the only House race Kalshi lists as competitive. Democrat Gabriel Vasquez is seeking a second term in a district that Trump carried in 2024.
- Democrats dominate New Mexico’s election odds at every level heading into June 2. But NM-2 gives Republicans their only realistic general election opportunity in the state.
SANTA FE, N.M. — New Mexico holds its primary election today, Tuesday, June 2. Voters will decide nominations for governor, the U.S. Senate, and all three congressional seats.
The state is solidly Democratic at the top of the ticket. But the primary will determine whether Democrats nominate their strongest possible candidates heading into a general election environment that still carries uncertainty.
Here is where the election odds stand and what bettors should know before the polls close at 7 p.m. Mountain time.
Governor: Haaland Leads an Open Race
Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham is term-limited and cannot run for a third consecutive term. That has opened the state’s most contested Democratic primary in years.
Kalshi gives former U.S. Rep. Deb Haaland a 92% chance of winning the Democratic primary. Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman is at 9%. Haaland has led in available polling throughout the race.
For the general election, Kalshi’s gubernatorial election odds rate Democrats as heavy favorites to hold the governorship. New Mexico has not elected a Republican governor since Gary Johnson left office in 2003, and the state has drifted further toward Democrats in the years since.
Deb Haaland
Haaland, 55, is a member of the Pueblo of Laguna tribe and became the first Native American to serve as a U.S. cabinet secretary when President Biden appointed her Interior Secretary in 2021. She served as a U.S. representative for New Mexico’s 1st Congressional District from 2019 to 2021.
Her campaign has leaned on name recognition, her national profile, and deep ties to New Mexico’s Native American community. Her lead in the primary has been consistent since she announced her candidacy.
Sam Bregman
Bregman is the Bernalillo County District Attorney and a former deputy state auditor. He has positioned himself as a public safety and fiscal pragmatist and has had the financial backing of several major Democratic donors in New Mexico.
He trails Haaland significantly based on New Mexico election odds at 9% to her 92%. He would need a major late swing in primary turnout to pull off an upset.
Republican Governor Field
Three Republicans are competing in Tuesday’s primary. Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull has led in limited polling, though that lead has narrowed heading into primary day. Former state Human Services Secretary Duke Rodriguez and businessman Doug Turner are also running.
None of the three is considered a strong general election candidate given New Mexico’s partisan lean. Kalshi’s governor map gives Democrats a safe-to-likely advantage in November regardless of which Republican wins Tuesday.
Senate: Luján Has No Republican Opponent
Sen. Ben Ray Luján is seeking a second full term. He faces only one Democratic primary challenger, Matt Dodson, a businessman with no significant funding — Luján has raised more than $7.3 million compared to Dodson’s roughly $11,800.
The Republican path to November is even thinner. The only GOP candidate who filed was disqualified for failing to meet ballot requirements. A businessman named Larry Marker is certified as a write-in Republican candidate but must receive at least 2,351 write-in votes in the primary to qualify for the general election ballot.
An April Research & Polling survey had Luján at 69% among likely voters, with Dodson at 9% and 22% undecided. Kalshi and 270toWin both treat the seat as safely Democratic — it does not appear among any competitive Senate election odds markets.
House: NM-2 Is the Only Race That Matters for Bettors
New Mexico has three congressional districts. Two are safe Democratic seats. NM-2, the state’s southern and eastern district, is the only one Kalshi lists as a competitive general election market.
Democratic Rep. Gabriel Vasquez holds the seat after flipping it in 2022. He won reelection in 2024, but the district voted for Donald Trump in both 2020 and 2024. Republicans view it as a top pickup target.
Several Republicans are competing in Tuesday’s primary to take on Vasquez. The winner will face a Democratic incumbent who has won two competitive races in a row — but in a district that the top of the Republican ticket continues to carry.
NM-1 (Albuquerque area, held by Democrat Melanie Stansbury) and NM-3 (northern New Mexico, safe Democratic) are not listed among competitive races with House of Representatives odds on Kalshi.
The Bottom Line
New Mexico is deeply Democratic at the statewide level, and Kalshi’s markets reflect that. The governor and Senate races are not competitive in November. NM-2 is the single race worth tracking closely for bettors.
Tuesday’s primary will confirm Haaland as the likely Democratic nominee and set a Republican challenger for Vasquez in NM-2. Those two results are the ones that will move the November prediction markets.
For anyone who follows the national House picture, NM-2 is a small but real piece of the House control puzzle. The election odds for the races today in New Mexico lean heavily blue — but in the south and east of the state, there is still a fight worth watching.
New Mexico’s primary is today, June 2, 2026. The general election is November 3, 2026.
