- Kalshi gives Xavier Becerra a 69% chance of winning the California governorship, up from 62% earlier this month, while Steve Hilton sits at 12% and Tom Steyer at 19%.
- The most recent PPIC poll (May 14-18) has Becerra at 23% and Hilton at 20% among likely voters, with five candidates still within an 11-point range — making Tuesday’s top-two primary genuinely unpredictable.
- The key question heading into June 2 is whether the Democratic vote splits enough to allow two Republicans — Hilton and Chad Bianco — to lock out every Democrat from November.
- Sen. Alex Padilla is running for a second full term and is expected to advance easily. Kalshi does not list the Senate race among its competitive general election markets.
- The election odds heavily favor Democrats in November regardless of who advances — but the outcome of the primary itself could reshape those numbers dramatically.
LOS ANGELES — California’s top-two primary is five days away. The polls are tight. The markets have moved. And the outcome of June 2 will set the shape of one of the most closely watched general elections on the 2026 map.
Here is where the election odds stand right now — and what bettors should know heading into Tuesday.
Where the Governor’s Race Stands on Kalshi
Kalshi currently prices Xavier Becerra at 69% to win the California governorship. Tom Steyer sits at 19% and Steve Hilton at 12%.
Those are general election odds in California — not primary odds. They reflect who traders think will win in November, factoring in who is likely to advance from Tuesday’s vote.
Polymarket tells nearly the same story. Becerra leads there at about 67%, with Hilton below 10%. Both markets are pricing in California’s Democratic lean rather than just the primary horse race.
The Polling Picture Looks Different
The most recent PPIC poll, conducted May 14-18, has Becerra at 23% and Hilton at 20% among likely voters. Steyer sits at 15%, Bianco at 13%, and Porter at 12% — five candidates within 11 points of each other.
A California Democratic Party poll released last week had Hilton at 22% and Becerra at 21%. Both leads are within the margin of error.
The polls and prediction markets are telling different stories. Polling captures the primary, where fragmented support creates chaos. Markets are pricing the full picture — including what happens in November.
Xavier Becerra — 69% on Kalshi
Becerra is the market’s pick to win the whole thing. His odds have climbed steadily since April, when frontrunner Eric Swalwell dropped out following sexual misconduct allegations.
He served more than two decades in Congress representing Los Angeles, then became California attorney general in 2017, and later led the Department of Health and Human Services under President Biden.
His challenge on Tuesday is straightforward: he needs enough Democratic primary voters to coalesce around him to ensure at least one Democrat advances to November.
Tom Steyer — 19% on Kalshi
Steyer, a billionaire who spent more than $200 million on a failed 2020 presidential campaign, has never held elected office. He has blanketed California airwaves with advertising throughout the race.
His online election odds at Kalshi have slipped from 24% to 19% over the past two weeks. The final debate on May 14 appeared to narrow rather than widen his gap with Becerra.
If Becerra consolidates Democratic support, Steyer’s path to November closes. If the Democratic vote stays split, both could fall short of the top two.
Steve Hilton — The Republican Wild Card
Hilton is the leading Republican in the field. He is a British-born former strategist for Prime Minister David Cameron who became a Fox News personality. Trump endorsed him in April.
He sits at 20% in the most recent polling — essentially tied with Becerra. Republican voters in California are splitting between Hilton at 38% and fellow GOP candidate Chad Bianco at 37%, according to Emerson.
If Republican voters consolidate behind Hilton while Democrats stay split among four or five candidates, he could finish first. Bianco pulling support away from Hilton is the scenario that most helps Democrats.
The Scenario That Would Flip Everything
California’s top-two primary sends the two highest vote-getters to November, regardless of party. That creates a scenario Democrats are watching nervously.
If Hilton and Bianco both advance, the November general election would be Republican versus Republican — all but guaranteeing a Republican wins the governorship for the first time since 2006.
Modeling from Democratic strategist Paul Mitchell put the chance of a two-Republican November at 27% earlier in the cycle. That number will shift based on Tuesday’s final turnout.
Senate: Padilla Sails Through, Nothing to Bet On
Sen. Alex Padilla will be on the same June 2 ballot, seeking a second full term. Kalshi does not list the California Senate race among its competitive general election markets.
Padilla was appointed in 2021 after Kamala Harris became vice president. He became California’s first Latino U.S. senator and won his first full term in 2022.
Republicans have not won a California Senate race since 1988. Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rate the seat as safe or solid Democratic.
The Bottom Line
Becerra is the market’s pick at 69% to win in November. But markets can only price what they know. Tuesday’s result will tell us a lot more.
If Becerra advances alongside Hilton, he is a strong November favorite in a state that has voted Democratic for governor in every election since 1998. If two Republicans advance, those odds flip entirely.
The Senate race is settled. The governor’s race is not. For bettors watching California, Tuesday’s vote is the starting gun — not the finish line.
California’s top-two primary is June 2, 2026. The general election is November 3, 2026.
