- Montana’s June 2 primary will set the nominees for an open U.S. Senate seat and two House seats. The Senate race is the most closely watched contest in the state.
- Polymarket gives Republicans a 72-75% chance of winning the Senate seat, with former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme holding Trump’s endorsement and a double-digit polling lead.
- Independent Seth Bodnar — supported by former Democratic Sen. Jon Tester — is priced at 24% on Polymarket, making Montana’s Senate race a rare three-way contest tracked by prediction markets.
- Rep. Ryan Zinke’s retirement from MT-1 creates the state’s most competitive House race. Former Democratic gubernatorial nominee Ryan Busse will be the Democratic contender.
- The election odds in Montana are heavily Republican, but the Senate race — a rare three-way contest involving a well-funded independent — gives the state more November intrigue than its red-state reputation suggests.
HELENA, Mont. — Montana holds its primary on June 2, setting nominees for an open Senate seat and two congressional districts.
All of them are Republican-leaning. But one has an unusual wrinkle that makes the election odds in Montana worth tracking closely.
Senate: Alme Is the Favorite, but Bodnar Changes the Math
Two-term Sen. Steve Daines withdrew from his reelection campaign in late March and endorsed former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme to be his successor. Trump quickly followed with his own endorsement.
Alme will enter Tuesday’s Republican primary as the overwhelming favorite. He faces Lee Calhoun and Charles Walking Child as nominal opponents.
Polymarket gives Republicans 72-75% odds of winning the Senate seat in November. Kalshi’s map rates Montana as solidly Republican. Cook Political Report and the Almanac of American Politics have also moved the race to “solid” or “safe” Republican territory.
But this race is not a simple two-party contest. Seth Bodnar, a West Point graduate and former university president, is running as an independent. He is backed by former Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, who lost his Senate seat to Republican Tim Sheehy in 2024.
Polymarket prices Bodnar at 24% to win the Senate seat outright. That is not a number prediction markets usually assign to independent candidates in red states.
Polling from mid-May shows Alme with double-digit leads in head-to-head matchups against Bodnar. Still, Bodnar draws support from moderate voters and crossover Republicans, which is exactly what Tester used to do when he won three Senate races in Montana.
Kurt Alme
Alme served as the U.S. Attorney for the District of Montana under both Trump administrations, making him one of the president’s longest-serving federal prosecutors. He has never run for elected office.
His entry into the race came at the direct request of Daines, who Trump described as passing the torch to an “exceptional” candidate. The speed of the Republican establishment’s consolidation around Alme cleared what might otherwise have been a more contested primary.
Seth Bodnar
Bodnar is a West Point graduate who served in the U.S. Army before becoming president of the University of Montana. He announced his independent candidacy after Daines withdrew, criticizing the Republican field for what he called a process of coronation rather than competition.
His path to victory is narrow. Montana has not elected an independent to the Senate in modern memory. And a three-way race — with both a Democratic nominee and an independent — could split the anti-Republican vote badly enough to secure a comfortable Alme win.
The Democratic Primary
Five Democrats are running in Tuesday’s primary: Alani Bankhead, Michael Black Wolf, Michael Hummert, Christopher Kehoe, and Reilly Neill. None has significant polling presence.
Polymarket gives the Democratic nominee below 2% to win in November. Whoever emerges from the Democratic primary will face the unusual challenge of running alongside Bodnar, whose independent candidacy may appeal to many of the same voters.
MT-1: Open Seat Creates Most Competitive House Race
Rep. Ryan Zinke announced his retirement on March 2, opening up Montana’s 1st Congressional District, which covers the western part of the state including Missoula, Bozeman, Butte, and Kalispell.
Zinke won the seat in 2024 with 52.3% of the vote — a narrow margin that made it one of the more competitive Republican-held seats in the West. An open seat could make it more so.
Four Republicans are competing in Tuesday’s primary: Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen, radio host and Army veteran Aaron Flint, educator Ray Curtis, and former state Sen. Al Olszewski, a surgeon. Former Democratic gubernatorial nominee Ryan Busse and Iraq War veteran Matt Rains are the leading Democratic candidates.
Kalshi does not list MT-1 as a toss-up, but with an open seat in a district that was already below 53-47 territory, national Democrats will be watching closely.
MT-2: Downing Runs as Incumbent in Safe Territory
Rep. Troy Downing holds Montana’s 2nd Congressional District covering the eastern part of the state. He won in 2024 with 66% of the vote, and Kalshi does not list the race as competitive.
Democratic candidates Sam Lux, a horse farrier, and Brian Miller, an attorney, are running in the Democratic primary. Neither has registered on prediction markets. MT-2 is settled terrain for the GOP.
The Bottom Line
Montana is Republican territory, and the prediction markets reflect that. The Senate race will almost certainly go to a Republican. MT-2 is not in play. MT-1 is the only House seat with any realistic path for Democrats.
The one race worth watching for bettors is the Senate. Bodnar’s independent candidacy is unusual, and his 24% Polymarket price is not small. His path is steep, but the Tester model — a centrist figure who built personal vote totals above his party’s baseline — is not fiction in Montana.
Tuesday’s primary will set the nominees. Then comes the real test of whether Montana’s Senate race is as settled as the election odds currently suggest.
Montana’s primary is June 2, 2026. The general election is November 3, 2026.
