- Nevada holds its primary on June 9. The state has no Senate race in 2026 — both seats are held by Democrats and not on the ballot until 2028 and 2030. The marquee contests are for governor and three competitive House seats.
- Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo is widely considered the most at-risk incumbent governor in the country. Cook Political Report rates the race a toss-up. Kalshi reflects that uncertainty, pricing the race as the most competitive governor’s contest on its map.
- Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford leads the Democratic primary for governor over Washoe County Commissioner Alexis Hill. Ford is the heavy favorite to win the nomination and face Lombardo in November.
- NV-3, held by Rep. Susie Lee, is the most competitive House seat in the state. She won by only 2.8 points in 2024 over Republican Drew Johnson, who is running again.
- Nevada’s election odds are among the most closely watched in the country this year. Both the governor and at least one House seat will be genuine toss-ups heading into November.
LAS VEGAS — Nevada votes Tuesday in a primary that will set the nominees for one of the most closely watched governor’s races in the country and at least one House seat that could help decide control of Congress.
The state has no U.S. Senate race in 2026. Both of Nevada’s Senate seats are held by Democrats and not on the ballot until 2028 and 2030. That makes the governor’s race and the state’s three competitive House contests the primary focus for bettors tracking election odds in Nevada and political watchers heading into November.
Governor: The Most at-Risk GOP Incumbent in the Nation
Gov. Joe Lombardo is seeking a second term and is widely described as the most vulnerable Republican governor in the country heading into 2026. Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rate the race a toss-up. Kalshi’s governor odds price the race as the most competitive on its national map.
Lombardo won his first term in 2022 by less than one percentage point over incumbent Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak — about 15,000 votes out of 900,000 cast. It was the only incumbent governor to lose reelection in the United States that year. Lombardo’s win was historic: he was the first person in Nevada history to win the governorship without carrying either Clark or Washoe counties, which together account for about 89% of the state’s population.
His reelection campaign has leaned on tip tax exemptions and economic development while trying to thread a difficult needle: maintaining enough independence from Trump to appeal to Nevada’s large pool of independent and libertarian-leaning voters while not alienating the Republican base.
Nevada is a split-ticket state by habit. Both Trump and Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen won Nevada in 2024, with Trump narrowly taking the state with just under 51% of the vote. That volatility is precisely why this governor’s race has attracted national attention and significant prediction market activity.
Democratic Primary: Ford vs. Hill
Attorney General Aaron Ford is the Democratic frontrunner. He has been the state’s highest-profile Democratic legal officer for six years and has earned national attention by suing the Trump administration on issues ranging from education funding to AmeriCorps. Washoe County Commission Chair Alexis Hill is his only serious primary competition.
Ford is expected to advance from the primary and face Lombardo in November. Prediction markets and political analysts both treat his win as likely. The matchup that follows will be one of the most closely tracked governor’s races in the cycle.
Republican Primary: Lombardo Runs Against Token Opposition
Lombardo faces two nominal challengers in the Republican primary — salon owner Irina Hansen and hip-hop artist Matthew Winterhawk — who are not expected to threaten his nomination. He is the clear, expected nominee for November.
NV-3: The Most Competitive House Seat in the State
Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District, covering the southern Las Vegas suburbs, is the most competitive House seat in the state. Rep. Susie Lee won reelection in 2024 by just 2.8 percentage points — 51.4% to Republican Drew Johnson’s 48.6% — one of the narrowest margins in the country that cycle.
Johnson is running again in 2026. He faces no meaningful Republican primary opposition and will advance easily to the general election. Kalshi lists NV-3 as a competitive House general election market. Both parties are expected to invest heavily in the rematch.
For four consecutive election cycles, Republicans have failed to flip any of the three Las Vegas-area Democratic House seats. NV-3 is their best opportunity to break that streak in 2026. But they have said the same thing in every previous cycle.
NV-1 and NV-4: Less Competitive, But Still on the Map
Rep. Dina Titus holds NV-1, which covers central Las Vegas and parts of Clark County. She won in 2024 with 52.0% and actually improved on her 2022 margin. Kalshi does not list NV-1 among its most competitive markets based on its odds for House of Representatives elections, though Republicans have targeted her before.
Rep. Steven Horsford holds NV-4, which covers parts of northern Clark County and rural Nevada. He won in 2024 with 52.7% over former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee. Like NV-1, the district has trended more Democratic in recent cycles despite repeated Republican investment.
NV-2, covering Reno and rural northern Nevada, is held by Republican Rep. Mark Amodei and is safe Republican. No Democrat has ever won the district.
The Bottom Line
Nevada is a purple state that defies easy predictions. The governor’s race is the single most competitive gubernatorial contest in the country right now. NV-3 is a genuine House toss-up. The election odds here will move frequently between now and November.
Lombardo is the incumbent, but thin margins don’t lie. He won by 15,000 votes last time. In a midterm environment that currently favors Democrats, he will need to split the same independent ticket that kept him in office in 2022.
Tuesday’s primary will set the nominees. The general election matchups will begin immediately. For bettors, both the governor’s race and NV-3 are worth watching closely all the way to November.
Nevada’s primary is June 9, 2026. The general election is November 3, 2026.
