- Rep. Julie Fedorchak won the North Dakota Republican House primary on Tuesday, defeating Alex Balazs in a rematch from 2024. Balazs had won the state GOP convention endorsement but lost the primary vote.
- Fedorchak will face Democrat Trygve Hammer again in November. Kalshi does not list the race as competitive. She won by 38 points in 2024.
- North Dakota has no governor or Senate race in 2026. The governor and both Senate seats are held by Republicans whose terms run through 2028 or later.
- Several statewide offices were on the ballot Tuesday, including two Public Service Commission seats and four other partisan offices. All are held by Republicans running without serious opposition.
- The election odds in North Dakota are as settled as they get. This is one of the strongest Republican-voting states in the United States, and the Fedorchak-Hammer rematch is expected to produce a similar result to 2024.
BISMARCK, N.D. — North Dakota held its primary on Tuesday, June 9. The most contested race on the ballot was the Republican House primary. By the end of the night, it wasn’t close.
Rep. Julie Fedorchak defeated challenger Alex Balazs and claimed the Republican nomination for a second time. She will face Democrat Trygve Hammer in November in a race that Kalshi does not list among its competitive general election markets.
For bettors, the primary confirmed what the North Dakota election odds already showed: the state is settled terrain, and the general election is expected to go as all of the recent federal contests have.
The Only Federal Race: Fedorchak Over Balazs Again
This was the second time Fedorchak and Balazs faced each other in a Republican primary. In 2024, Balazs entered a five-person field and finished fourth, receiving just 4% of the vote. This time, it was a two-person race.
Balazs won the endorsement of the North Dakota Republican Party at the state convention in Minot earlier this year, the same way he had earned the party’s nod in 2024. Fedorchak, as she did two years ago, skipped the convention and went directly to the primary voters. Both times, the primary voters chose her.
Trump endorsed Fedorchak. She declared victory Tuesday night. Hammer, who ran unopposed in the Democratic primary, will be her opponent in November for the second time in a row.
Who Fedorchak Is and What She Has Done
Fedorchak is a Bismarck Republican who served on the Public Service Commission in the state for more than ten years before winning the state’s at-large congressional seat in 2024.
In Congress, she sits on the House Energy and Commerce Committee — a rare assignment for a freshman. The committee oversees oil, natural gas, and energy policy, which matters a great deal in a state that ranks among the country’s top oil producers.
She has pushed back on subsidies for solar and wind energy and positioned herself as a strong voice for fossil fuels. That stance plays well in North Dakota and aligns closely with the state’s major economic interests.
Why the General Election Is Not Competitive
Fedorchak won her 2024 general election against Hammer by 38 percentage points. That margin reflects how deeply Republican North Dakota is at the federal level.
Trump received 67% of the vote in North Dakota in 2024, making it his third-best state in the country. Republican presidential candidates have won North Dakota in every election for decades.
Unlike many of the House of Representatives odds available for many other states at Kalshi, this election in North Dakota is not among the competitive races on the platform. Essentially all political prediction sites consider the seat as solidly Republican. Hammer is running again, but the structural math has not changed.
What Else Was on the Ballot
Voters also chose nominees for four statewide offices: secretary of state (Michael Howe), attorney general (Drew Wrigley), agriculture commissioner (Doug Goehring), and tax commissioner (Brian Kroshus). All are Republicans running without meaningful opposition.
Two Public Service Commission seats were on the ballot as well. One is a six-year term held by Sheri Haugen-Hoffart. The other is the shorter term held by Jill Kringstad, who was appointed to fill the seat Fedorchak vacated when she won Congress. Kringstad faces Chris Olson for that nomination. Neither seat is likely to be competitive in November.
Voters also decided a proposed constitutional amendment that would require ballot initiatives to address only a single subject. North Dakota rejected a similar measure in 2024. Results on the measure were still being counted Tuesday night.
No Governor or Senate Race in 2026
North Dakota has no governor’s race in 2026. Kelly Armstrong won the governorship in 2024 and will serve until 2028. Both Senate seats — held by Republicans John Hoeven and Kevin Cramer — also do not expire until 2028.
That means there is no top-of-ticket drama in North Dakota this cycle. The only federal race is the House seat, and it is not expected to be close.
The Bottom Line
Tuesday’s North Dakota primary produced the expected outcome. Fedorchak won. Balazs lost. The state convention endorsement, as in 2024, did not decide the race.
The Fedorchak-Hammer rematch in November is already priced as a non-event. No market has it as competitive. No forecaster has it as anything other than safe Republican.
For anyone following the national midterm map, North Dakota is a state to skip. The election odds here were settled before the first vote was cast, and they remain that way heading into November.
North Dakota’s general election is November 3, 2026.
