- Mayor Karen Bass advanced to the November runoff after taking 36.5% in early returns, with the AP projecting her as the top finisher. Spencer Pratt held second place with City Councilwoman Nithya Raman in third, with the race for the second runoff spot still being counted.
- Kalshi had Bass at 62% to win the full race heading into Tuesday, with Pratt at 25% and Raman at 13%. Polymarket was nearly identical. Both markets heavily favored Bass to advance.
- Pratt, a registered Republican and former reality TV personality, held second in early returns. If he advances, a Bass-Pratt November matchup would be the most unusual general election in Los Angeles’ modern history.
- It is the first time since 2005 that a sitting Los Angeles mayor has faced a runoff after their first term. In that year, then-Councilman Antonio Villaraigosa defeated incumbent Mayor James Hahn.
- The election odds heading into November will depend heavily on who wins the second runoff spot. A Bass-Raman race would be a more conventional matchup. A Bass-Pratt race could reshape the entire prediction market.
LOS ANGELES — Mayor Karen Bass punched her ticket to November. Everything else is still being sorted out.
With about half the expected votes counted late Tuesday, Bass led the Los Angeles mayoral field with 36.5% — more than enough to lock in a runoff spot. The AP called her race. Spencer Pratt held second place. Nithya Raman was in third.
The second spot was too close to call. California’s late-arriving mail ballots could move things. But one thing is clear: Bass is in, November’s runoff is coming, and the election odds for the race will be very interesting to track.
What the Markets Said Before Tuesday
Kalshi had Bass at 62% to win the full race heading into Tuesday. Pratt was at 25% and Raman at 13%. Polymarket on June 2 showed similar numbers: Bass 68%, Pratt 23%, Raman 13%.
The market for advancing to the runoff was even clearer. Bass sat at 91% to advance on Kalshi. Pratt was at 78%. Raman had climbed to 31% after a polling surge late in the race but was still the underdog for that second spot.
Those prices held up. Bass advanced. Pratt led for second as of the early returns. The primary delivered roughly what traders had priced.
Bass: The Incumbent Who Faced Real Pressure
This was not a comfortable primary for Bass. A UCLA Luskin School poll in the weeks before the vote found that 40% of likely voters were undecided, with director Zev Yaroslavsky calling it “a wide-open race.”
The final UC Berkeley-LA Times poll had her at just 26%, nearly tied with Raman and only four points ahead of Pratt. That is an unusual position for an incumbent mayor to be in.
It is the first time since 2005 that a sitting Los Angeles mayor has been forced into a runoff after their first term. That year, then-Councilman Antonio Villaraigosa defeated incumbent Mayor James Hahn. Hahn became the first LA mayor to lose reelection in 32 years.
Bass won her 2022 general election with 54.8% of the vote against independent developer Rick Caruso. She enters the November runoff with endorsements from Gov. Gavin Newsom and former Vice President Kamala Harris. Her campaign has pointed to falling homelessness numbers and a drop in murders to their lowest level in decades.
“We have laid a foundation, and we’re going to build on that foundation,” Bass told a cheering crowd at her election night party at the LINE Hotel in Los Angeles.
Spencer Pratt: Reality TV Star, Political Disruptor
Pratt was a household name in the early 2000s for all the wrong reasons. He became famous as a villain on MTV’s “The Hills.” Now he is campaigning to run the nation’s second-largest city.
He entered the race after his Pacific Palisades home burned down in the January 2025 Palisades Fire. His campaign used AI-generated ads that went viral, and he drew financial backing from Silicon Valley donors. He is a registered Republican in a race with no party labels on the ballot.
His candidacy drew skepticism. The Los Angeles Times questioned his residency, reporting he had been living at a rental home in Santa Barbara County after the fire. Pratt called the coverage “diabolical” and said he was living in a trailer on his burnt-out property.
Trump said of Pratt: “I’d like to see him do well. He’s a character.” But Trump never formally endorsed him. Pratt said he didn’t need the endorsement: “I don’t need anyone’s endorsement but mothers’. That’s who’s getting me elected.”
On election night, still in second as counts came in, Pratt told reporters outside his watch party: “I’m going to prove to everyone this is for real, and I’m ready to run this city.”
Why the Second Spot Changes Everything
The identity of Bass’s November opponent reshapes the betting picture entirely.
If Pratt advances, Los Angeles voters will face one of the most unusual runoffs in American urban political history. A liberal incumbent mayor vs. a MAGA-adjacent reality TV star. Pratt has said he would aggressively enforce laws against unhoused drug users and has criticized Bass on potholes and public safety.
If Raman advances, the race becomes a more conventional matchup between two Democrats. Raman is a Los Angeles City Council member who has positioned herself to Bass’s left on housing and equity issues.
Bass is still the clear November favorite under either scenario. But a Pratt matchup carries more uncertainty. He has shown he can raise money, generate attention, and pull votes from frustrated Angelenos. His ceiling in a two-person race is higher than his ceiling in a 13-candidate primary.
The Bottom Line
Bass advanced as expected. The market got that right. The second spot is still being sorted, but Pratt led Raman in early returns and Kalshi had already priced him as the more likely second finisher.
Kalshi had Bass at 62% to win the whole race heading into Tuesday. That number will likely move once the second runoff candidate is confirmed. A Bass-Pratt November matchup would be something prediction markets — and Los Angeles — have never quite seen before.
For anyone tracking election odds in California this fall, the Los Angeles mayor’s race is a sideshow in terms of state politics. But it is a main event in terms of spectacle. And it just got more interesting.
The Los Angeles mayoral general election is set for November 3, 2026. Final primary results will be certified in the coming days.
