Election Odds by State — All 50 States, 2026 Races
Every US state has races on the 2026 ballot, and every state has a page on this site. Use this index to jump to the state you care about, or browse the full list below to see the political landscape across the country at a glance. For nationwide markets — presidential 2028, House control, Senate control, balance-of-power — head back to the homepage. For state-specific races, pick from the list below.
The 2026 election cycle in context
The 2026 midterms are the largest off-year election in the country. Thirty-three Senate seats are on the ballot, plus two special elections. Thirty-six states are electing governors. All 435 House seats are up. That's the broad national picture, but the political weight of any given race depends entirely on which state you're looking at. Maine's Senate race could decide control of the chamber. Wyoming's Senate race is over before primary day. Pennsylvania has a competitive governor's race. Vermont's race is decided.
Every state page below covers the four major office categories — Governor, Presidential, Senate, House — even when a particular state has no race in that category on the 2026 ballot. The off-cycle context (when the seat is next up, who currently holds it) is just as useful as the live race coverage for the seats that are on this year's ballot. We update the pages as primary fields develop, incumbents announce retirements or campaigns, and prediction markets form around new races.
All 50 state pages
Click any state below for live odds, voting history, and 2026 race coverage.
- Alabama
- Alaska
- Arizona
- Arkansas
- California
- Colorado
- Connecticut
- Delaware
- District of Columbia
- Florida
- Georgia
- Hawaii
- Idaho
- Illinois
- Indiana
- Iowa
- Kansas
- Kentucky
- Louisiana
- Maine
- Maryland
- Massachusetts
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- Mississippi
- Missouri
- Montana
- Nebraska
- Nevada
- New Hampshire
- New Jersey
- New Mexico
- New York
- North Carolina
- North Dakota
- Ohio
- Oklahoma
- Oregon
- Pennsylvania
- Rhode Island
- South Carolina
- South Dakota
- Tennessee
- Texas
- Utah
- Vermont
- Virginia
- Washington
- West Virginia
- Wisconsin
- Wyoming
What's on each state page
Every state page follows the same structure so you can find what you're looking for quickly. The opening section has a quick-guide table with the state's basic political facts — electoral votes, 2024 presidential margin, current governor and senators, which seats are on the 2026 ballot. Right below that is the State Odds Block: live prediction-market odds for every race in the state, grouped by office. Governor races at the top, then Senate, then House.
Below the live odds, four sections cover Governor, Presidential, Senate, and House races in depth. Each section explains what's at stake in 2026, who the candidates are, what the political history of the state looks like, and where the prediction markets currently price the race. States without a race in a given category (no governor race in 2026, both Senate seats off-cycle) still get the section, because the off-year context matters for understanding the state's political shape.
How the live odds work
The State Odds Block on every state page pulls live data from Polymarket and Kalshi, the two largest US prediction markets covering political races. Polymarket has cryptocurrency-backed markets that work without geographic restrictions. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange. Both market makers produce real-money probability estimates that update every few minutes as traders act on news.
The numbers you see on a state page are implied probabilities — what the market currently thinks the chance is that a given candidate or party wins. A market trading at 67 cents means the market estimates a 67% probability. We display these as percentages because that's how most readers think about elections. Race odds get color-coded by party: Democratic candidates in blue, Republican in red, independent in purple, toss-ups (40-60%) in gold. Each card on the State Odds Block links to the underlying market on Polymarket or Kalshi if you want to trade directly.
Worth knowing: prediction markets only form around races where there's enough trader interest. About half the states have no live markets at any given time because their 2026 races are either uncompetitive, off-cycle, or both. We show a note on those pages letting you know we checked and there's nothing to report yet. Check back closer to election day — primary season tends to spawn new markets as fields develop.
When the state pages are most useful
The competitive 2026 Senate races are where the markets matter most. Maine, North Carolina, Georgia, Iowa, Texas, Alaska, and a handful of others see heavy prediction-market volume because the seats are genuinely contested. The governor's races track similar logic: open seats in competitive states (Florida, California, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia) attract real money, while open seats in deep-red or deep-blue states usually don't, because the primary winner is essentially guaranteed to win the general.
The state pages also serve as a reference for the structural facts that don't change race to race — which Senate seat is up when, how long the governor's term is, how a state's two-letter code maps to its political profile. If you're using prediction markets to make decisions, the structural information matters as much as the live odds. Knowing that Vermont elects a Republican governor every two years in a state Harris won by 32 points tells you something about how to read polling and market prices that the bare numbers can't.